Monday, December 20, 2010
Aviation Commentary for the Week of December 20
If the activity continues to be about the same, maybe I'll post monthly (which should still keep the threads from getting too long. Otherwise, I've also been thinking about posting some aviation stuff myself (like Phil did) on a very limited basis just to keep these post headers a little more interesting looking.
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ReplyDeleteCome-on!!! Peg did not almost single handedly bring Eclipse down. Nothing almost single handedly bring it down. They were attempting something (creating a jet company from scratch) that had very, very, very long odds to begin with and the breaks on engine, avionics, economy, etc went the other way.
ReplyDeleteDo you really think you could have done a better job than Peg, given the cards she was holding?
Picking up on the previous thread - "What was the big deal with FBS and the TSA other procedures"?
ReplyDeleteThe deal is it was just revealed that in some airports 100% of the time that the testers tried to get pass checkpoing with a *GUN* or *mock-explosives/bomb-parts* they got through. One hundred percent of the time.
The average rate for all airports is classified, and said to be very damning. One source familiar with it claims that a full 70% of the time guns or bomb components got passed all TSA measures and on-board the aircraft.
Just this week, a passenger forgot his 40-mm gun in his luggage and it made it all the way through, until re remembered it AFTER LANDING and reported it.
So the issue is that the TSA measures including groping young girls and boys at checkpoints are *only for show* and completely infective.
Would you support for example the IRS and Income taxes if in some states 100% of the people got away without paying any taxes and on average only 30% paid their taxes?
When something so inconvenient is so ineffective, you get rid of it.
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ReplyDeleteshe had some sort of hold over Vern
ReplyDelete"You've Really Got a Hold on Me" by various artists, including Rod Steward and the Beatles, however the definitive version is by the Miracles in 1962.
Actually FC, the whole operation was doomed from the start. The operation needed someone with a doctorate in engineering from a real university who also had people skills. Alas, someone like that would have taken one look at the situation and walked away.
FC said:
ReplyDeleteDo you think EDT would care a Rats *** if she had no meaning in the bigger picture of things?
Gosh, I am blushing!! Seriously, I think Peg was a remarkable person to work with and I think she had significant meaning to EACs success. Things fell apart in 2008 and I do not fault her personally for any of it. She even knew who I was when I poked my head in her office one day to ask a silly question. She made efforts to talk to me when she was in my work area. By contrast, Vern never mumbled more than 'hello' or 'morning' when my cubile was 20ft from his office....
My QA manager, the guy who hired me, refered to Peg as "a token." I think there were many people within the company who thought she didn't have the right stuff or whatever. In one critical meeting before an FAA audit (where I was like the lowest ranking person in the room) -- she said to the group that 'we aren't going to get anywhere if we are lying to each other.' THAT (imho) really took balls to say and it did impress me. And shortly after that meeting it was clear that we were not ready for the audit and the date got pushed back. If Peg really wanted to bring down Eclipse, to sabotage things, she could have alllowed audits to go forward when she knew we were not ready. From my limited vantage point, that did NOT happen. I also remember seeing Peg come into the office after a biz trip and she looked totally and completely exhausted. I am certain that woman worked her ass off for Eclipse.
The Emperor had no clothes. The problem was Vern, especially his lack of "intra-personal" skills. I'm sure he is great when chatting up investors or serving Kool Aid to Al Mann. But for the life of me, I cannot picture Vern in the same room with Todd Fierro, the VP of Manufacturing. So it's up to others to volunteer anything that may have occured between the two of them (I always got the feeling that Vern stayed in his office 99% of the time). Todd was an arrogant jerk who drove people to perform via fear and intimidation; at least that was his reputation. Metaphysically speaking, maybe Eclipse could have done better with an autocrat like Jack Welch at the helm. Peg was great as far as I am concerned. Vern was an okay CEO when it was a start-up company. But he was not the right leader to be CEO when the company moved to the production phase, especially when you factor in his behavior towards suppliers.
I can't volunteer how I know this, but Vern's house was up for sale at just a hair under $2.8 million. It may have already sold, so not surprising that he wants to leave town, thank God!!! Now, if I had the chance to work for Peg again, I'd do it in a heart beat!!!
e.d.t.
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ReplyDelete"Fart in the wind" said... What I do know from a primary source is that she had some sort of hold over Vern and he stopped listening to all of his top management staff except Peg Bilton, which then started the house of cards to finally fall down.
ReplyDeleteNice reversal of "what you know for a fact". I guess you really don't know much.
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ReplyDeleteFC,
ReplyDeletein 2007 EAC's top management should have know that the company would be TU at the end of the year (Roel Pieper's money just delayed this process.).
Why did Peg Bilson stay with EAC? She didn't know it? Too much money? There was no other job for her?
Why did she go to EAC? There was even no chance in 2006 - apart from chapter 11.
Julius
FC:
ReplyDeleteI agree with you in terms of Peg's integrity, etc. It may have been a sinking ship, but I recently re-read her testimony on 9-17-2008, only two months before she left the company in November. She was still giving it 110% and I don't think it was just for the hell of it.
Julius,
Most executives at Peg's level would have some kind of employment contract; they can't generally leave that easily. I did hear rumors that she wanted to leave in 2007 and they coughed up more $$$ for her. I'd lose my current job if I gave exact numbers, but I was shocked to read that Peg was paid more than Vern. Maybe it was a one shot deal, or a bonus. But even at the executive level, one can't leave Company A at $1,000,000 per year and gracefully accept a position at Company B for the same $$$ a month later. Well, Mark Hurd (HP to Oracle) may be the exception to the rule....
Executive's develop reputations too just like anyone. Despite my Google searches, I don't see Vern on the radar anywhere. I think he's known to be toxic and not easily employable at the moment.
e.d.t.
e.d.t,
ReplyDeleteif Vern didn't say the truth, she might have left the company at any time. But she could only blame him one time.
Without a new job at hand it might be better to make a deal - but the reputation was at risk.
She was part of big organizations in top positions and then "COO" of a failing start-up...
That's the end of a career!
Julius
I've never worked with Peg Billson, but the people I know who have (not at Eclipse) speak well of her.
ReplyDeleteAnd Julius-
Vern is still out and about-
He Lives!!
I still have hopes for Icon, though.
At a former company, in an attempt to extract something of value from our relationship with Eclipse, we came up with some lessons learned-which were-
(1) Vision and execution are two very different things with very different skill sets required.
(2) Never put somebody from the software industry in charge of an aviation company (it’s too hard to go from where crashes are expected to where they can be literally fatal).
(3) Winning the Collier trophy doesn’t mean you have a viable business model.
(4) If you have never done something, don’t go around trashing the people who have.
(5) If you’re going to try to create a new segment of the market, don’t tell the competition you’re coming years and years and years before you get there.
(6) Under promise and over perform, not the other way around, and of course (most importantly from my perspective)-
(7) You never, Never, NEVER field a jet without an antiskid system!!!!!
Yesterday, a dear friend who was in charge of the Airborne Laser Program came by to deliver his annual "Christmas Package", put together by his beautiful and precious wife. Here is a man, a few years my senior, who still flies . . . has a good handle on the things pertaining to aerodynamics, etc., . . . and yet can communicate in civil conversation, without insult and/or innuendo.
ReplyDeleteBoth this man, and his wife, are "survivors" of cancer . . . and we continue, in this "rarified air" of "older folks", have excellent conversation . . . fellowship . . . far beyond what I read in the comments of this blog.
And I wonder . . . why do folks stoop to the lowest levels of morality to express their views?
The "gadfly" is not impressed . . . and I suspect some of the other "old timers" do not find the crude comments productive.
gadfly
(No wonder the "blogsite" is about to go down for the third time.)
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ReplyDeletePeace on Earth and Good Will Towards Men.
ReplyDeleteGadfly,
ReplyDeleteAnd I wonder . . . why do folks stoop to the lowest levels of morality to express their views?
Merry Christmas!
Words are difficult to handle. Look at TV or politics, the anchor men/women... "Strong words" are better! (????) - One has to say it as it is!(????)
It is elitist to play with the right words, not to use martial expressions....to listen to someone!
What's going on in 2011 - just waiing for 2012?
New fuel for GA pistons xxxNoLead?
EAC: A new bigger bird - but when? Dreams...
Single engine jets: First TC(s) in 2011?
And who will be still in business if Honeywell's view into the crystal ball is correct?
Happy new year!
Julius
All the best everyone...
ReplyDeleteAnyone know what happened to Phil Bell?
Happy Holidays everyone.
ReplyDelete2011 will be yet another year of retrenchment for US GA/BizAv OEMs.
There is nothing on the radar that indicates even a possibility of change.
But signs for the US economy look quite a bit brighter. Avionics and electronics will continue to be the coolest upgrades. IPad2 electronic flight backs and backup GPS will abound. Garmin Suites will get more STCs and span a huge range from G500 to G5000.
Embraer will likely do well with the new super midsize gets and the G6 will do well at the high end.
Moving um to airliners, we may see both the 788 and 748 enter service in the same year, and see the first profitable year for major US airlines in a decade.
The housing, auto, finance industries are either coming off the lows or soon to do so. China will continue to help US innovative to crush stale competitors (think Apple iDevices vs Nokia), as well as keep unions and inflation in check.
Obama seems to have hit his stride with the Republican duopoly, and that is great for the country.
So, pain for GA, but gains everywhere else are my prediction.
Long live progress - death to cap and trade loonies ;) - at the ballot box, I mean.
Nothing like a New Year's Parade to make things real...
ReplyDeletePide Piper Parade
FC,
ReplyDeleteThis cringe-worthy PR stunt by the ex-Beech carpetbagger at Piper should be looked on as Step 1A in getting more money from the state of Florida down the road when the Sultan tires of throwing money down the rat-hole.
I suspect the new Gov and the ex-Beech dude will hit it off just fine.
ASM:
ReplyDeleteI suspect the new Gov and the ex-Beech dude have already hit it off - big time.
"Just like a page ripped out of the Eclipse playbook..." someone (sorry can't remember who) wrote on the blog in reference to Pied Piper shenanigins. And they are SO right.
This parade thing is pitiful --just wish so many weren't going to suffer in the end.
FC
FC,
ReplyDeleteRick Scott, the Florida Gov-elect was the head of Columbia/HCA when it paid 1.7 BILLION dollar fine for Medicare and Medicade fraud. In a recent law suit deposition he plead the Fifth Admendment 75 times.
Sounds like someone I would want to have a parade for.
"In 1561, King Philip II of Spain decreed that Florida was not worth settling. It was too hot; the land was sandy and covered in swamps; there were too many reptiles...."
ReplyDeleteNot much has changed. Piper is supposedly looking for a new President. The acting President, the clueless dude from Imprimis, has ceded control of the company over to the ex-Beechcraft marketeer who has installed his own people in all the key slots. One of the first jobs an ethical, competent President would have to do is get rid of the ex-Beechcrafter and all his minions. Ain't gonna happen now. So the out-of-control company careens toward the abyss. They make Eclipse look well-managed.
Meanwhile, back in space real flight is happening....
ReplyDeleteThought we all needed a little uplifting! Enjoy.
space pics
FC
Dearest ATM:
ReplyDeleteAll I could do was sit and shake my head after your last comment, which is unfortunately the way it is. I can't imagine a more corrupt or negligent situation in Florida -- let alone at Piper Land.
Focus on the positive I say....
FC
FC,
ReplyDeleteThere are some class acts still in US aviation. They just aren't in Vero Beach or Wichita anymore, and haven't been for a long time now. Gulfstream in Savannah, GA, for example is a fantastic company. And check out the first flight of the conforming Hondajet at 'www.hondajet.honda.com'. Honda is based in Greensboro, NC.
From Black Tulip:
ReplyDelete"All the best everyone...
Anyone know what happened to Phil Bell?"
BT,
I haven't heard a thing from Phil. The reason I started this blog is because the last AC&E thread was up to around 500 posts and months old with no word. Also, Gad ended up with an alter-ego that was posting a bunch of spam.
A long time ago, circa 1970, when congress was demanding fuel efficient cars, the "Big Three" said it couldn't be done. A Japanese spokesman simply said, "Can do!", and the Honda CVCC (Compound Vortex Controlled Combustion) engine and car ("Civic") was born.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like Honda is about to do something special, again.
http://hondajet.honda.com/
What a contrast to the recent fiasco in Albuquerque, that caused so much grief to the New Mexico community, local industries, and taxpayers.
gadfly
(An aquaintance, a truck driver for Yellow Freight, father of 12, including four sets of twins, and "dyed-in-the-wool" union member, who would never buy a Japanese car, somehow bought a Honda "Civic" . . . and from that time on, praised the Japanese for the best cars in the world. 'Talk about a complete transformation!)
There’s something about quality that doesn’t need “hype”.
ReplyDeleteDepending on what is being evaluated, true quality comes through. How do you define it . . . but when you see it, you know it.
The first time I felt, heard, and experienced the torque of a BMW 2002, accelerate from 20mph in high gear, I knew that the engine designers had “got it right”. Later, I learned what the design staff and German unions could do to mess up the rest of the car in overall reliability . . . but that little car, for the first few years . . . that was a great little chariot. And then, one day, I drove a Honda Accord Lxi, over the same path, and learned “true quality”, through and through.
One day, at a friend’s home, a long time ago, my wife said, “Look at this sewing machine!” Well, with a name like “Bernina”, what was it? . . . some Italian thing? So, I hinged back the cover . . . looked at the “innards”, and was sold in an instant. Swiss quality and precision . . . it doesn’t take me all day to see quality . . . unfortunately the 30 year guarantee of the machine that I purchased for my wife expired . . . what, about ten years ago?, and I’m concerned what to do if something major goes wrong. Shucks, we paid over $300 for that machine! (Oh, by the way, our two daughters still have the two little dresses and “bloomers” that I, . . . yes, the “gadfly”, made for them on that machine . . . almost forty years ago. Who taught me to sew? . . . Well, it was my Dad, the man who also invented the inertial restraint system and five-point quick release buckle that we’ve all seen in the cockpits on most commercial aircraft, that many of you commercial and military pilots have used, thousands of times, and the cable tension regulators that keep many military, and most commercial flight control systems operating . . . for the past sixty plus years. Yes . . . sewing is a great hobby.
The subject is “quality . . . you’ll know it when you see it!”. ‘Looking at that “Hondajet” . . . quality! It’s “low key” . . . never needs to make big future promises. Quality most often “looks back” to what has been accomplished . . . and leaves the future for the “past customer” to anticipate, without empty promises, yet with an earned commitment to the future.
gadfly
(Around the year 1957, I purchased a Swiss Army Knife, the “fisherman” model, at the Navy Exchange at “Pearl Harbor” . . . and on the next patrol on our “sub”, I made a Nylon extension to loop it through the belt-loop on my pants. Here it is on my desk, as I type . . . and I’d be at a loss to make a duplicate of that Nylon masterpiece. And the knife? . . . It looks like it came out of the box less than a month ago. After fifty-four years, that knife is in excellent condition. I’ve used it all these years for many things. It’s been places that you wouldn’t believe . . . but quality, whether a tool, a machine, an aircraft, . . . a human life . . . you know it when you see it. It’s been said that you can’t hide a beautiful woman . . . married to one, I agree. And you cannot hide quality . . . somehow, it breaks through and is revealed.)
Let's wait to praise the HondJet until it actually proves a success, shall we?
ReplyDeleteI welcome Honda into US BizAv and wish them well. But they have a long way to go.
Gulfstream IS in fact a class act.
Just note how the free right to work states are leading in aviation and auto manufacturing. Unshakle the American workers from the tirany of unions and they rise to the occasion.
The South is rising. Savanah's education, per capta incomes, quality of life, etc did a mirror flip with Detroit.
I say - awesome.
Well, Honda is head and shoulders above Piper right now. Both started their small turbofan airplanes at the same time. Honda's aircraft is much more advanced with a completely new engine being developed with GE as well. Honda has flown a proof of concept airplane and now has flown a production conforming airplane.
ReplyDeletePiper has a nice posterboard and plywood mock-up and is conservatively about $800 million dollars and four or five years away from being where Honda is right now. If Piper can find the management and engineering talent and if they can get the money.
It pains me to watch someone I know slowly go down the tubes at Piper and probably not even realize it fully. Not that they deserve anything better, but I do not like to watch people meet their maker -- even if they have done harm. I always hold out hope for everyone. Why, because I am merely a floating cloud going by.
ReplyDeleteFC
ASM:
ReplyDeleteHondajet does indeed look impressive. Will the manufacturing mainly be in NC?
There didn't seem to be any mention of avionics on their website. Perhaps not there yet?
B95:
I get the whole union thing, but must the whole world be one up one down?
FC
Hi FC. Not sure what you mean, but if you are asking if competition is a zero sum game, in general, not, but in declining markets sometimes yes.
ReplyDeleteGA is a declining market and BizAv is currently a flat market at best. In these situations, yes, every sale won by a company is a sale lost by another. Every job created in Brazil by Embraer or GA by Gulfstream is at least one job lost somewhere by Beech or Cessna et al.
You can accept that reality and embrace global competitiveness as an imperative or you can watch the decline of Detroit and Wichita. Union's choice.
There once was a company called “Fuller Brush” . . . which sold rather expensive hair brushes, door to door . . . and it thrived through the “Great Depression” (1929 to the beginning of WWII, and beyond). Once, I worked for “Fuller”, although I was not cut out to be a door-to-door salesman. I asked my boss “How come Fuller did so well selling expensive products, when most folks couldn’t afford the basics of life?” He said that the people would spend extra money to buy quality . . . they could not afford to purchase a cheap item, two or three times, and still end up with an inferior product.
ReplyDeleteFolks made the sacrifice and bought the better product. ‘Funny thing, the sample products that I was attempting to sell while a student in college in the late ‘50's and ‘60's . . . I still have them. They refuse to wear out.
Me thinks “Honda” may very well have a good market, selling a high quality product to folks that cannot afford to take a chance on something of low quality, like our famous little jet of recent notoriety.
gadfly
(But I’ve been wrong at least once before).
FC,
ReplyDeleteI am sure it is a Garmin based system, possibly with synthetic vision as well. The airplane will be built in a new state-of-the-art factory in Greensboro. The engines will be built nearby in Burlington, NC, and be available to to other airframe manufacturers.
Good products create their own market segment and increase the size of the overall market. Boron is plain wrong there.
The Honda employees here are very well paid, have a pension program AND a 401K program, discounts on Honda cars, jet-skis, motorcycles, ect., have company paid medical, life insurance, disability insurance and on an on. So much for Baron's globalized $2.00 a hour sheet-metal worker.
There is no chance Honda will outsource to China or India or Mexico, like Beech and Cessna. Or threaten the state of North Carolina with moving - like Beech and Cessna did to Kansas and Piper did to Florida.
Thank God for a few firms with class.
In 2008, before the UAW was forced to accept "some" modicum of reality, these were the sample all inclusive hourly costs for US autoworkers (pay, pension, benefits) for the top 6 manufacturers:
ReplyDeleteChrysler $75.86
General Motors $73.26
Ford $70.51
Toyota $47.60
Honda $42.95
Nissan $41.9
I think we know that the top two went Tango Uniform. Number 3 escaped by getting the same concessions under threat of filing.
Bottom 3, non-unionized in the south? No problems, steady as they go.
What does that tell you?
As to your statement that "There is no chance Honda will outsource to China, Mexico, ....". That is the silly comment of the year (so far). Honda is moving substantial production to Mexico and China for cars, motorcycles, etc. And that is likely to continue, particularly for engines, transmissions, etc which are more labor intensive.
For final assembly, there are only about 20 person-hours of assembly line work in the average Honda car - or about $800. That incidentally is the cost to ship a car from Asia to the US. And it is not a coincidence. Most manufacturers assemble close to location of sale, because they have driven down final assembly labor costs to match shipping costs.
It is as simple as that - simple math. If shipping a car from China to the US suddenly was say only $100, you can bet that final assembly costs would tend to that or production would shift sooner or later.
I do these calculation on a weekly basis at work (not for cars or planes though).
And it is not just the US. Look at the new Jetta/Passat just announced. Simply by moving production from Germany to US(TN)/Mexico, VW launched new model of the cars that are bigger, better equipped with price tags $8K and $11K lower than the models they replace.
ReplyDeleteThink about it. Just by moving location for components and final assembly, you knock 33% of a car's price.
This and Hyundai's moving of production to the US is all in direct response to the Detroit 3 lowered production costs. The decisions were made at the time the VEBA agreement was reached (in 2007, IIRC).
As the D3 labor costs lowered, other companies have to move to the US South to match Ford and GM prices.
It is a huge net positive for the US economy.
Yikes, Dorothy has to click her ruby slippers and make sure Scarecrow, Tinman, and Lion are not all on the same page after all. Oh Great and Wonderful OZ, please speak....
ReplyDeleteWicked Witch, you are doomed because there are great hearts, souls, and minds thinking way beyond OZ.
FC
Baron, It is simplistic to discuss wages without discussing productivity of the worker and the capacity and efficiency of the plant and equipment. In WWII Ford was producing 650 B-24s a month out of one plant alone and Grumman was producing a squadron of Hellcats (18 airplanes) a DAY on Long Island. Were the good wages paid to workers more than a reasonable incurred cost of production? Would you have shifted production to Haiti?
ReplyDeleteWith cars the demand for GM products had dropped so low that soup-kitchen wages would still have resulted in a loss for that company. Waggoner was making way over $75 a hour and he was vastly overpaid. As was the failure from GE who went to Chrysler after running Home Depot into the dirt.
Beech, Cessna, and Piper now want it both ways. They want the taxpayer to finance their plant and equipment and they want to pay third-world wages. Well, the US worker AND VOTER has had quite enough.
Enjoy your Mexican Volkswagen and Indian Jaguar. The rest of us will take a pass.
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ReplyDeleteBaron95,
ReplyDeletehow many identical cars are built per day at GM or Honda? That isn't the mass production it was 40 years ago!
Most cars are built/assembled according to customers specs. Ok, some people take the cars in the show rooms - and the others get their cars with our without shipping time - across the oceans!
What about financial costs? When the USD was strong, it was better to build in DEM or EUR regions!
What about Stratos 714? Remake of the Eclipse Saga?
Julius
Well now...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.piper.com/pages/PipertoTerminatePipersportDistributorBusinessRelationship_01122011.cfm
flightwriter
ReplyDeleteThanks much, From the company's website:
"Piper’s core philosophy is to execute leading aircraft programs where the company offers the most value to customers. An example of this is Piper’s sustaining commitment to the PiperJet Altaire business jet program and the improvements the company is making to the global dealer and support infrastructure."
I'm not sure what this means in English but the phrase "Altaire business jet program" is a real hoot. It was an owner-flown jet program until the last few weeks. With real deposit money put down by real pilots who wanted the jet promised them at the price promised them and close to the date promised. Now they are supposed to sit on their hands for four years while Piper redesigns the whole frigging airplane? For corporations who may not let their executives fly on a single-engine turbofan in the first place. Incredible.
Guys - I'm not advocating for low or high wages, low or high unionization, low or high regulation.
ReplyDeleteI'm simply reporting the fact.
This is what a can-do, sensible regulations, low unionization competitor to the US builds in the time it takes us to complete the environmental impact to the bay snails.
I have no problem with the UAW extorting GM or Chrysler or Ford. The only thing they have accomplished (besides two bankruptcies) is to have their numbers go from 1.5M down to 300K.
Meanwhile, the US non-unionized plants in the South, went from ZERO to 150,000 workers in less than 2 decades.
I have no problem with Michigan/Detroit having high taxes and forced busing. All they have accomplished is see their population decline from 2M to 700K.
Meanwhile, Southern cities like Charlotte, Dallas, Houston are growing by leaps and bounds. 2M people moved from the Midwest, northeast and California to Texas alone in the last decade.
I have no problem with congress putting all the controls on wall street and capital they want. All they will accomplish is to see more firms and more trades and more jobs move to Hong Kong, etc.
I'm just reporting on the facts. In a global economy, you can only extort and over regulate for a few decades - eventually, capital and jobs will seek the most favorable conditions.
Simple as that.
You can accept it and make good decisions (like voting for favorable policies) or you can simply say "we want high salaries, we want to tax the rich, we want to protect the snails, we want to tax CO2 (from cars, but not from cows or trees)".
Your choice.
Your choice.
B95:
ReplyDeleteGuess that would then be the meaning of a total net zero result over time? Is the process then not more important?
ASM:
Do not the real pilot/investors have a way out of this Pied Piper parade? Otherwise are we not talking about another GA Ponti/Eclipse scheme all over again?
Just wondering and maybe I am wrong. If so, you all will let me know, that's for sure.
FC
FC,
ReplyDeleteI think the people who have put down a deposit on the PiperJet can get their money back, and many have.
The folks who bought the PiperSport (the Czech two-seater with the Piper name stuck on) don't have any recourse as far as I can see. The Czech factory will support the airplanes I'm sure. They usually produce a kit plane for the owners to assemble themselves.
As to why Piper did this I am sure it is the brainchild of Dr. Dracula from Beech who has taken over the company, and who knows how he thinks? The Imprimis CEO with the Harvard MBA is back to his coloring books by now.
Okay guys, I need your advise. This has nothing to do with our beloved aviation, but it does with business and economics, which is why I am asking for your expertise in this area.
ReplyDeleteLet's say I get a job offer in San Diego that would move me up both financially and professionaly. I am vested at UNM (nearly ten years) but salaries have been frozen for three years. And I am just making it any more. I am senior staff and have lots of qualifications. It's now or never to make a move -- bottom line.
I lived in California for many years as an adult so I know the lay of the land, but is California a huge financial risk? Is the State going to go down the tubes? Is the once 8th largest economy in the world on the edge of collapse?
What should a floating cloud consider?
FC
Goldman Sachs added Embraer to its "conviction buy list" today - stock immediately popped up 10%, even with all the floods near its factory. Nice, huh?
ReplyDeleteFC - of course California is not going down the tubes - did you notice that Apple just hit an all time high of $348/share and Intel just announced record earnings? Did you know that the NASDAQ index is just 1.5% bellow it's October/2007 peak - that is right, almost even - on the strength of California's hi-tech firms?
As to you moving there, there are so many variables - you didn't give us enough details.
But at least do the following - calculate your earnings net of taxes and housing costs between the two places.
Those are the two things that will hurt you in San Diego. California, personal income and sales taxes are very high, and so is housing costs. If you go from $100K/year in New Mexico to $120K/yr in San Diego, you are probably losing money. But don't take my word for it, do the math.
Good luck with your decision.
FC,
ReplyDeleteI have visited both places but lived in neither. The US Navy will keep San Diego afloat no matter what, although the remaining economy is much more balanced than ABQ. ABQ might be in line for severe cutbacks in the DOE programs which will ripple through the economy there. Face it, without DOE ABQ is a dusty crossroads.
I think a reduction in the size of your house you can afford in San Diego with respect to ABQ would be more than offset by all the things you can do all year around in San Diego. How much house do you need if you are outside all the time? San Diego also has several first-class colleges where you can work on an advanced degree (or two).
Life's a journey not a destination where you count your dollars on your death bed. Go for it! I sure would.
Gentlemen, Thank you! Good advise on all fronts.
ReplyDeleteI just needed a little bolstering to my gut feeling about San Diego. I have done the math and it would take a somewhat significant increase to make it worth it for me financially. But it is well within possiblity. We shall see and I will let you know.
B95: You will be happy to know that I am now chosing flights, when I can, so that I can fly on Embraer airplanes! So MUCH more comfortable.
In terms of projections, cut all your figures by half and there's my situation. Plus I really appreciate your optimism. And I think you usually end up right on the money.
ASM: I already live comfortably within a less than 1,000 sq foot beautifuly zen-like space (of my own making)and I could totally recreate that in San Diego. You may have forgotten I already have a PhD, but I am all for continuing education! You are probably right about ABQ not having a whole lot to depend upon. If all the DOE support goes out the window this state is in major trouble.
Bottom-line, I don't make near enough in the first place to worry if I am going to have enough to take with me!!!! I do enjoy life as it is however.
Back to GA world:
So with Piper letting go of the "sports" airplane what ever happened to the Cessna Skycatcher?
FC
FC,
ReplyDeleteThe rate of inflation, regardless of what games the government plays with statistics, has been about thee percent a year. For every $10,000 in salary three years ago you would need to make $10,927 today just to stay even. So in real terms you haven't had a 'salary freeze' for three years - you have had a 9.27% salary reduction. Has your employer given you any increased benefits or privileges or any sign at all you are valued?
'The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about'
ReplyDeletehttp://www.czechsportaircraft.com/
ASM:
ReplyDeleteThat would account for why I am struggling the last year to make ends meet when my income or spending habits haven't changed. No, UNM has actually decreased employee retirement benefits. Not only that, I have a 7% grade level promotion sitting on a provosts desk due to me since last August. It's not like we are even asking for extra funds for the increase. We already have it. People are scared to spend anything it's ridiculous. That's why I started sending out resumes. At the same time I am grateful for the job, but the only way to move up, it seems, is to move out!
Flightwriter:
That poor little lonely airplane. Hope you don't work there.
FC
FC -- Nope, no personal affiliation with CSA or the gang in Vero, fortunately. It is indeed a sad situation.
ReplyDeleteFC,
ReplyDeleteI imagine your new job offer is with the University of California at San Diego, or San Diego State University? Seems like either one would be a good opportunity. Not knocking the University of New Mexico but if they can't come clean with the employees I would move on.
This same sort of nonsense is rampant in aviation companies. Once they have screwed over the workforce it is very easy to do it again and again. And again.
I think the California economy has bottomed out. The college system is one of the best things that state has going for it and UCSD is a premier research university (as you well know). I don't know that much about SDSU but have heard good things there also.
Good luck with your decision!
ASM:
ReplyDeleteHold on, hold on, I don't have the job offer yet! But in order to pull myself together for the interview I have WANT the job and to move -- leave cushy underpaid job and the home I have made for myself in Albuquerque. I now know if I were to get the offer I would take it!
No, I am not going to work for a college either as I am a museum curator so I looking at a senior level position at a major museum that NEEDS me!
BTW there's a new program on PBS called the Aviators - all about flying and airplanes and all that good stuff. Oddly, it seemed dated as they maintain that the future of aviation is in light sports airplanes. SEE the boat that flys! Is that dated or what?
FW:
Glad you are not part of the CSA or Pied Piper land. When I think of that UNM looks pretty darn good!
FC
I'll get a new thread up. FC, good luck with your move decision. Flightwriter, that's hilarious that "The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about" is up on CSA's website. :-)
ReplyDeleteASM said...For every $10,000 in salary three years ago you would need to make $10,927 today just to stay even.
ReplyDelete--------------------
That is just silly. The highest component of most people's cost of living is housing. And housing costs are way lower now than they were 3 years ago. Pretty much the only components of cost of living (excluding volatile food and fuel - which are small components anyway) that have increased at health care and higher education. Unless you pay for all/big portion of your healthcare costs - a tiny minority of Americans do - or have kids in higher ed, your COL now is likely less than 3 years ago. Mine certainly are. I just refinanced my home from 5.625% to 3.5% interest per year, for example.
We are living in the lowest inflation, lowest cost of capital in the entire history of the USA. Think about it. I can borrow money at half the interest rate than Portugal, Ireland, etc. I can borrow money at virtually the same rate the US govmt is paying on its 10 year bond.
People don't know how good things are.
And all the stupid financial analysts are still counseling people to pay down debt and get out of stocks into bonds. It is almost criminal what they are doing. Criminal.
FC, if you move. Buy a house and get the biggest mortgage you can afford :) :) It is a historical opportunity.