Monday, November 15, 2010

Aviation Commentary for the Week of November 15

It's great to see new names checking in!

74 comments:

  1. Andy:

    "Link" color much better to see now. Still would like to know what people think about the status of the Dreamliner that I posed in last thread. (And what's a "hover?")

    By the way those links are simple to make and a trick Shane taught me a while back. Anyone interested to know how let me know.

    Back to innovation vs copy what markets are dictating....
    FC

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  2. Well I suppose I'll check in as well.

    Wanted to follow-up on Baron's post about the apparent damage to the Qantas A380 from the uncontained Trent 900 failure.

    I am amazed at the details just now coming out as to just how crippled the plane was by the engine failure.

    Like Baron, my impression, now that the details are coming out, is that Qantas effectively dodged a bullet - and it raises concerns to me about lessons apparently not learned from serious accidents of the past.

    Truly disconcerting - the real question in my mind is how long before we see changes to the A380 design, as it surely seems to lack some reversionary capability that one might have thought a common requirement.

    On another topic, I am considering cancelling my wife's airline trip to visit my daughter and I in San Diego for Thanksgiving next week, and just grabbing a 182 to go pick her up myself. I am thinking about this to avoid the latest insanity courtesy of Big Sis and the DHS/TSA.

    It is really ridiculous that we continue to impose more and more intrusive, embarrasing and dehumanizing hoops for the travelling public to jump through, while refusing to screen cargo, refusing to secure the border, allowing cities to remain so-called 'sanctuary' cities in willful violation of Staten and Federal law; all the while providing accomodation for the very people most likely to actually be a danger to their fellow travellers.

    El Al has developed effective screening techniques that could be trained and rolled out across the US to a leaner, more trained and better paid/motivated TSA that would actually enhance security while respecting our individual liberties and human dignity.

    Seems like the world remains upside down.

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  3. And on another note, thanks to Andy for picking up the mantle and continuing the discussion.

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  4. CW,

    You are correct about the TSA - they are not only totally out of control, photographing children with the TSA's full body scan or touching them in inappropriate places are felonies in most states. Parents who sit by and let it happen could be considered accessories and lose custody of their kids. Enough is enough. It was the State Department that authorized US entry for every real and potential airline "terrorist" to date, even though in one case the young man's father went to the local US Embassy and reported him as a threat. The people that make these rules fly around on taxpayer-financed corporate jets - they never subject themselves to this degrading experience.

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  5. TSA and Airport security is a ridiculous "feel good, do little" system. I gave many examples in the past.

    Fly through DFW, and many other airports, and there are dozens and dozens of Army/Marine grunts flying through carrying their weapons. And we *know* that Majors (in the US) and grunts (in Iraque) have turned those weapons against other Americans in the name of Islam.

    So what gives?

    Hos about all the $8.50/hr TSA guys that can go out to brake and return to sterile area while setting off the alarms. How many of those can easily be turned or harbor anti-American sentiments and can flip with no warning?

    There are so many holes in the system, that it is ridiculous to inconvenience, millions and millions of Americans every week for it.

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  6. Re A380 - Check out this picture of the damage to the front spar. Amazing the size of the chunk that was taken out. Good thing this was on an A380. Had this been on a 777 or A350, Qantas would have lost their ETOPS tickets with all the problem engines found.

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  7. That is going to cost mucho diƱero to fix - not even sure if tooling can be brought to Singapore to do it. If a new wing is required, it has to be taken out of the production schedule - then there is the matter of transporting it to Singapore and installing it. Unless the plane can get a ferry permit - to France. But can it fly 14 hours with a chunk of the spar missing?

    Interesting developments ahead. Either way, that plane is out of commission for a year.

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  8. Here is another picture of the A380 wing - lots of exposed wires - with all the fuel that was gushing out - luckily there was no ignition.

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  9. My guess is that they need engines right now more than airframes. I suspect they will drop the remaining three engines and ship them back to Rolls for modification and repair the airframe in place at least good enough so that it eventually can be flown with four (modified) engines back to the factory for a permanent repair.

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  10. Andy:

    I wanted to delete both of these last comments. One shows I deleted it, but still shows my name, which is a drag. And the other, I can't figure out how to delete it. No trash can seems to appear when I am signed in.

    Both were pretty boring comments I thought, but it was an attempt to keep things going....ho hum.

    So HEY, how about that FBS game? (Water cooler subject.)

    FC

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  11. FC,

    I deleted them. Not sure why you wouldn't be able to delete the second one. I'll have to take a look at settings to see if I can figure out why the delete option doesn't behave like the previous blog.

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  12. Sir Gadfly:

    Not sure why you deleted your posts. They were good AND relevent and like TEN times better than mine! Leave them up!

    Now I am just a cloud passing by.... and then suddenly I end up at the end of a thread (again). Blog slow because it follows suit (the economy.)

    Nevertheless, Happy Thanksgiving, everyone and all.

    FC

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  13. You too, FC. Also, FWIW, after Gad deleted the content I had to delete the remains of the posts. I've checked around in settings and can't figure out why the delete behavior has changed (leaving name intact). I didn't do anything to change it.

    Regarding blog activity, I agree completely with Gad that the old Eclipse really drove this whole thing. There are a lot of places to post about aviation. I've got over 5,000 posts at www.cirruspilots.org, for example.

    I'm just glad that you guys have checked in over here as at least it's a place where we all know to look at once in a while if we want.

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  14. And it's a place where everybody knows your name.

    Cheers!

    FC

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  15. baron95,
    TSA and air...

    I had the chance to "test" the situation at a stop over in Dubai. After an overnight flight I was too lazy to take my labtop out of the bag at the entrance control and nobody cared about that...
    For two regular local flights (about 450nm each) in NZ my hand laguage wasn't check at all (it was heavy!).

    I was told that in Germany the body screening will not show any body contours: If nothing was detected the staff will look at a green screen with "OK" otherwise the critical object will be displayed on the screen such that the staff will immediately find the critical object.
    Therefore this new screening will generally be less personal than the current way where the staff will nearly touch one's body.

    Is there a "good" screening technic? What is the benchmark?

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  16. Gadfly,

    Here is one solution to your emergency "fly to the doctor" vehicle.

    "The son of Nate Saint now flies a car"

    http://www.eaavideo.org/video.aspx?v=635469588001

    T2

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  17. Yes, T2 . . . That looks like a winner, flown by a Winner!

    gadfly

    (Thanks!)

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  18. No Julius. There is no good object screening

    I want to screen for people, not things.

    I don't care if you bring a gun onto the secure area of an airport.

    Everyday thousands of pilots, LEAs, US military do that and no one cares.

    They do it based on what? Some background check.

    I want the same background check to be available to every flyer that wants to take it. So now, all those flyers get through with whatever they want.

    And now, every would be terrorist that pulls out a box cutter scissors or what have you has a very good chance of being met by an unknown number of counter threats.

    For folks who have not done the background check (which incidentally is available to any one under global entry.gov), would get an Israeli style questioning to spot potentially dangerous PEOPLE, not nail cutters and scissors.

    That is the system I want.

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  19. Has anybody heard about Rick Schrameck (founder of Epic Aircraft) representing a potential buyer of Cirrus? Aero-News reported on that earlier this week in a larger story about Cirrus potentially being sold to China.

    Wasn't he hiding (for lack of a better word) for a while?

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  20. Also, have you seen that you can subscribe to these threads via email if you want? That way, if you don't check in for a while, you'll still be able to see when people occasionally post.

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  21. Here’s a strange! . . . Actually, not so strange!

    Boeing now has another thing to blame . . . a screwdriver left somewhere in the “system” for the latest delay. There’s been many crude statements made over the years for excuses . . . ending with “everyone has one, and they all stink.”

    Remember the maiden flight of the “787", escorted into the wild blue yonder, by a couple of those ancient jet “P80's”? They were a couple of the brain children of Kelly Johnson, who didn’t seem to know the meaning of an “excuse” . . . he certainly didn’t understand much about the future of aviation . . . poor man . . . a loser, for sure!

    Well, we await the next exciting “excuse” for another delay in the ever lasting saga of the “Dreamliner”.

    gadfly

    (A very long time ago, we could watch a Saturday matinee for about a quarter . . . TV hadn’t yet become affordable to most of us . . . and each week, “Hoot Gibson” or “Flash Gordon” or one of the heros of the old west, would be falling off a cliff, or about to be obliterated by space aliens . . . and by coming back “next Saturday”, we’d find out if our hero would make it through for another week. Boeing did their homework . . . and I’m sure that they’ll find a way, at the last moment, to get their bird into the wild blue yonder! Of course, the price has gone up a bit . . . 25 cents might not do it.)

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  22. “Our first TV!” . . . My Dad sold a milling machine, and had enough money to purchase our first “TV”. (Years later, I bought it back . . . and it’s among our historical artifacts, here at the shop . . . but that’s another story.)

    On a screen within a beautiful Mahogany cabinet, we could watch a picture in black and white, about nine inches from corner to corner . . . Channels 2, 4, 5, and 13 . . . coming from “Don Lee” over in the Beverly Hills, or from up on Mount Wilson, east of Pasadena . . . with the signal bouncing off the Beverly Hills, and back to us in Burbank, across the San Fernando Valley.

    About 5 or 6pm, the animated "logo" of Channel 5, Paramount TV would come on . . . showing stars going from left to right, over a tower, and the "lightning" marks would simulate transmission of the signal . . . and before long, "Time for Beaney", with a pupit with a propellor over his cap, "Cecil the Sea Sick Sea Serpent", "Captain Horatio Huff-N-Puff", and Dis-honest John" . . . and the evening entertainment was off and running, until sign-off at about 11pm, with the playing of the national anthem. Back then, most folks actually loved our nation.

    That little Philco TV put out an excellent picture . . . and great sound . . . $400, when average wages were about $1 per hour. But it was a live changing experience. When “Victory at Sea” was produced, on Channel 4, NBC, . . . I watched every episode . . . already dreaming of serving in the Submarine Service . . . “Full Fathom Six” . . . the chapter (of 26) of the Silent Service . . . it was almost as exciting as “girls” . . . OK, that’s a stretch, but to this day, watching any of the DVD re-runs of Victory at Sea, brings back many, many memories of “before” and “after”, serving aboard a “boat”, where excuses never surface.

    Read that again, if you didn’t get it the first time.

    gadfly

    (For the “younger generation” . . . and some of the old ones, for that matter, we old folks didn’t know that we could blame our lack of responsibility on someone else . . . we sort of thought that if we didn’t do it, it wouldn’t get done. And sometimes, we had the firm belief that it was a question of life or death. Go figure!)

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  23. Well, let's see . . . "Full fathom six" should probably be "Full Fathom Five" . . . but I must have been thinking what it would take to get our snorkel mast below the surface . . . actually about ten fathoms (sixty feet keel depth). Sometimes memory plays tricks. But no matter, today I had the privilege of teaching "art" to three grand-daughters, as is the custom and schedule every Thursday noon. And with a little forgiveness on the part of my "students", the excitement of learning to draw is far more important than a mistake made in historical facts, now and then.

    For you who have "kids", and maybe "grand-kids", I hope you are taking the time to spend with the "little ones", seeing things through "their eyes", and carefully, patiently, nurturing the excitement of flying, or painting, or even going to sea in a submarine. My oldest grandson called a couple nights ago, . . . he can't tell me when he'll go out on patrol aboard his "Boomer", but he'll be under water for many, many weeks, exceeding my maximum on a Diesel Boat of thirty days, eight hours, and fifteen minutes . . . but who was counting!

    Bottom line: Take the time to pass on to the next generation the things that truly count for time and eternity. If you don't do it, who will?

    gadfly

    (Don't stop with the "facts" . . . help them to understand the "why" . . . What a privilege to be a grandpa! . . . and what is that thing called "retirement", . . . not in my vocabulary!)

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  24. Excellent stories, Sir Gadfly, from above and below!

    Reminded me of the time I climbed Temple 4 at Tikal after having scuba-dived for several weeks, every day, sometimes two dives a day along the coral reefs and into the deep of Belize.

    ...After following a rather precarious path we climbed several rickety ladders to the top of Temple Four. I looked out across the vast rainforest canopy. Its vastness made me giddy very much like I felt when underwater. I was filled with so much elation that I had a distinct notion to fling myself out into space, as if that were perfectly normal. A flock of birds rose up from below, like fish, and waved me back to earth making me gasp and take a breath as I remembered where I was. I was tied and bound to this building made of stone and earth to bring humans closer to both the overworld sky and the watery underworld below.

    How little humans have changed over time!

    Floating Cloud

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  25. Baron95,

    background checks are good, if they comprise data from the latest time...
    Imagine a personal crisis which is misused by a "friend" - there is no chance others than to check for objects. The computers may show the last bank transfer but not the last meeting with a "friend" or the last cash transfer.
    The more data are stored and used by "safe" organizations the more problems will arise. Think of wikileaks which proves that there are leaks. Once one is on a "black list" there is hardly any chance to get rid of this tigger.

    BTW: Screening is standard for insurance companies. One has to pay according to one's risk!
    The best chance is a sane social and political environment: There is no safe harbour for supporters! Is one a hero after 5 or ten years in prison? For some days yes, but then after a month - I do not think so.

    Julius

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  26. When’s the last time . . . or any time, you sat back and really enjoyed the excitement of flying? Or, when’s the last time you truly experienced the simple pleasure of flying in an airplane?

    Thinking back, I can’t remember the first time I “flew” . . . but there were a couple or three times I truly enjoyed the pleasure of flying. Once was flying on a “MATS” aircraft . . . one of the early 4 engine Douglas series, from Travis AFB in California into Hawaii . . . to report aboard my submarine . . . around 1 January 1957. (Back then, it was about nine hours . . . flying “backwards”, aboard the “MATS” aircraft (Military Aircraft Transportation Service had all seats facing “aft”, to provide extra protection, in case of an emergency landing or crash).

    Little did I know how much my life would change within the next three months. But as we came in low over the south end of “Diamond Head”, I saw what would be my home for the next couple years . . . a sight worth seeing, the subtle colors of the ocean, surf, beaches . . . a few turns and we were on the ground at Hickam Field . . . having seen the “islands” as few people had seen them in the preceding centuries. They were truly “jewels” set in the beautiful ocean.

    ‘Just over two months later, my Dad would die . . . I would go back to California . . . take care of family matters for a month . . . and then, experience another flying high-lite . . . LAX to SFO . . . and then,Travis to Hickam to Wake Island to Tokyo (to catch up to the latest operations of my sub) . . . aboard piston engine aircraft, mostly Douglas, etc.

    Landing at “Wake” was truly a “wake-up”. The beach appeared almost at the same instant as the “chirp” of the tires biting into the runway . . . and the Douglas DC-6 or 7B (I forget), turned at the end of the runway . . . with wing over the beach at the opposite end . . . and we taxied back while observing the beached and rusting “wrecks” of Japanese landing ships on our right . . . from battles fought just fifteen years earlier.

    With a background in “engines”, and aircraft, I have attempted a few times, without success, to figure the distance that “pistons” traveled to get me across the Pacific, and all that sort of thing. Think of it! . . . the complexity of a double row of 18 pistons, a “master rod”, sodium filled valves, four engines, twelve variable pitch blades, carburetors that adjust for altitude, attitude, temperature, throat temperature, . . . and the list goes on and on, designed by folks with “pen and pad”.

    Yep! . . . There are many things that get right down into my very “soul”, when it comes to flying . . . and yet, I didn’t get to see Tokyo at night from the air . . . I woke up as we were taxiing up to the gate, after about 27 hours over the vast Pacific Ocean. For me, flying is a great time to get some sleep.

    gadfly

    (And then there was the time the instructor, a “bush pilot” with “JAARS”, Leo Lance, got out and said, “You take it around, this time . . . you’re on your own, and I’ll be watching how your make your final approach and touch-down!” That got my attention . . . and I didn’t get much sleep that time.)

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  27. ‘Last post, I think I had just gotten off the plane at Tokyo after sleeping for the previous many hours over the Pacific . . . and at that point, I boarded a bus, to take me down to Yokosuka, Japan, to return to my sub . . . now beginning a “WestPAC” patrol. The bus ride felt like the beast had square wooden wheels . . . Japan had not yet recovered from WWII . . . but all that is another story of how we became the closest of friends with a once major enemy.

    Not many years later, I would leave the Navy (but forever a “Submariner”), read a story about five young missionaries who had died at the hands of some natives in Ecuador . . . Nate Saint’s son was mentioned just the other day, with his “flying car”, etc. And I was soon off to Moody Bible Institute, that supplies about half of all missionary bush pilots for evangelical missionary work. I won’t bore you, again, with the details.

    Moody maintains an extremely high standard for pilots and A&P mechanics. And it was at Moody, that I finally had the pleasure, and excitement, of flying as a pilot. Time would take me in a different direction, but there are few things that can equal the excitement of “flying on the wings of the wind”.

    (Well, that time of swimming with a shark off the side of the sub in the Pacific . . . that was exciting . . . but very brief, thank God! ‘Truth is, I didn’t know I was on the menu until I was climbing aboard the port side forward bow plane.)

    In all the discussions of the “business end”, etc., . . . I hope you folks don’t forget the “basics”, of simply being able to rise above the earth, and move through towering castles of thunder-heads, at near sonic speeds, and yet shut down power, . . . coasting back into the landing pattern, and coming in on final approach . . . sliding in over the Rio Grande, and touching down, gently, in a small jet aircraft, with a “setting sun” at your back, and the witness of a recent rainstorm on the tarmac.

    gadfly

    (Sometimes, knowing someone with “lots-of-bucks” and a “Learjet” can be fun . . . but even a “J3" over a dirt or grass field is enough to create memories for a life-time.)

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  28. Well Dassault has delivered their 100th Falcon 7X. The airplane is operated out of 25 countries with operators in 40 countries having placed over 200 orders. I think the cost is about 40 million each. Amazing how they could do it in old high-cost France, isn't it? What they really need to do is get bought out by Goldman Sachs so morale could be totally destroyed. Then 1/2 of the work-force could be offered a 10 or 15% pay cut while the other 1/2 of the workforce is shown the door and operations are moved to China with all deliberate speed. Everybody knows you can't pay 20 Euros an hours for someone to buck rivets! What is the matter with those French? Maybe a Harvard MBA is on the way to show them how to really run a company! Merci. Oh, and the first test airplanes were fitted out with corporate interiors and delivered to customers after the flight tests were completed. They don't have seven of them sitting grounded on a flight line and they never even built a mock-up. But then they know what they are doing.

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  29. Sometimes while digging, one hits “pay dirt” in an unexpected place. Here’s some diggins’ from “Chicago, Breaking Business”, by “Julie Johnsson”, posted today, [with my comments in brackets].

    http://chicagobreakingbusiness.com/2010/12/united-postpones-first-787-service.html

    “The oft-delayed Dreamliner, which is nearly three years behind schedule, has proven a nightmare for airline schedule planners. The latest setback to the jet, the most technically advanced jetliner ever built, involves hardware and software issues brought to light by a Nov. 9 mid-air fire aboard Dreamliner #2 that left the stricken 787 to land under emergency power.”

    [Yeh . . . we know that! But when I see “software issues” I envision “blue screens” and other nightmares . . . and the oft “dis-connect” between “software authors” and the “real world” . . . and, of course, the simple “hardware” problems that cover design, manufacture, and installation. For instance, Boeing recently demonstrated that even a screwdriver conducts electricity. I could have saved them “millions” . . . the other day, while changing out a “dimmer switch” at home, I also demonstrated that a screwdriver is a good conductor, and had the breaker not tripped, I could have welded it in place, before the handle melted. Hardware definition: Screwdriver.]

    “Boeing’s fleet of six flight-test aircraft has been indefinitely grounded while the Chicago-based airplane-maker designs and tests fixes to prevent another widespread electrical failure.”

    [There’s that word, “indefinitely” . . . which is, well, somewhat “indefinite”, sorta’. ‘Maybe it has something to do with making “Chicago” a suburb of “Seattle” . . . or t’other way ‘round.]

    “Boeing is still finalizing a master manufacturing and delivery schedule prompted by the latest problems, leaving early airline customers in limbo as they finalize flight schedules for next year. Analysts expect the latest delay to last anywhere from a few months to a year.”

    [Now, that’s a mouthful . . . but not much to feed the brain. Somewhere I recall similar statements . . . something to do with getting something fixed on a car . . . or something.]
    “Boeing will have to retest every 787 component it redesigns and retrofit the 26 customer planes it has manufactured. Sources close to the program say that Boeing is mulling parking planes that require the greatest amount of re-work for now, and revising its delivery schedule so that early customers receive planes farther down the manufacturing schedule, which have many of the required design changes already built in.”

    [Now, there’s a statement to instill confidence . . . that Boeing knows things that they’ll reveal, later, to those at the front of the line.]

    gadfly . . . the “cynic”

    [‘Reminds me of another time, when there was a local partial “eclipse” of honest information to the Albuquerque community.]

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  30. ASM, France is high cost for consumers, not businesses.

    Consumers pay huge VAT (sales) taxes, huge income taxes, etc. All to keep corporate taxes low or zero, zero health care bill to companies, etc, etc.

    The only problem is that the party will end soon. So yes, you can hail the last couple of decades of civil aircraft production in France, but putting rivets in is a $2/HR max in the world market long term.

    Simple as that. Let's see how the Rafale does selling against the Chinese SU-27 copies of the future. Incidentally, that Chinese fighter is now flying with Chinese engines - the last piece of the puzzle, and the first squadron just went operational in Pakistan - previously a Dassault customer.

    Don't get too comfortable in the 7x, a project started 15 years ago. 15 years from now, the world will be very different.

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  31. Andy, regarding Cirrus and the ANN story, it is amazing how ANN likes to drum up the "if they move overseas, buyers will revolt".

    Buyers don't care that big chunks of Citations, 787s, Buicks, iPhones or what have you are built overseas. Who cares. Consumers want value for their money.

    If the choice is between Cirrus closing shop or moving some production overseas, I know what I prefer.

    This is so 1980s thinking. It is a global economy. We need to retain the iPhone's profits, not it's manual labor. Same for 787 or CirrusJet.

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  32. "but putting rivets in is a $2/HR max in the world market long term.

    Simple as that."

    Well, has not worked too well for Boeing, has it? Or Cessna? or Beechcraft? Used to be production was outsourced to the wold-wide firms who could do the job BEST. DC-9 fuselage skins were made forever in Italy, for example. It is just with the advent of the Micky Mouse "Globalization" concept (read "Slavery") that production is sent to to what the Harvard MBAs in charge THINK is the least cost producer, quality be completely and utterly damned. For the result I give you the Boeing 787 program. And the "Skycatcher". What a miserable, miserable downfall for American aviation. Thank God for the French. Be sure and e-mail them your advice on what their sheet-metal worker salaries should be.

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  33. You know Baron, forget sheet-metal workers. Given their track record in aviation I think Harvard MBAs would be vastly overpaid at $2 an hour. Piper has had TWO recently. The first cratered Adam Aircraft before inflicting himself on Piper. He got in his car an just left one day. What Harvard Yard class! His replacement, also a Harvard MBA, has managed to runoff just about ALL the salaried people and ALL the hourly people. Many have left without having another job lined up. The current Harvard MBA idiot has no experience in aviation whatsoever but is running the damn company? His brother is a senior manager with Imprimis. Then there is Boeing. What should the Boeing president's hourly rate be considering his performance thus far? $2 a hour. Not even close. How about a negative several hundred thousand dollars an hour (or a negative million dollars an hour) to cover the loss thus far with his "globalization' fantasy?

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  34. What a shame the Obamanos plan didn't include aviation and auto manufacturing. NO, we got some tarmack here and there across the US with new straight yellow lines with silly signs telling us how we have wasted more money! Case in point: Acoma pueblo has a new pretty road in the middle of no where maybe 5 miles long. I just drove over it the other day. Thanks Obama. Hey, a few guys got hired in Acoma to tar the road. And now those same guys don't even have a 2 dollar an hour "global" job in the middle of the US of A. Right on, man.

    FC

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  35. A friend of mine sent this to me today, interesting read on HBC.

    http://www.glgroup.com/News/The-Teetering-State-of-Hawker-Beechcraft-49885.html

    My friend’s comment: “Is a return to one's roots a path to salvation?”

    My tag line for the re-born HBC: Beechcraft, a Prop only Company

    T2

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  36. Hi ASM. You are assuming that Boeing would be better off long term if they were completely beholden to IAM union workers to build the entire 787. That is a big leap pall. Do you know how much money the Japanese and Italian gvmt and the respective companies brought to the table?

    Did you account for the greater bargaining position Boeing is in for decades when they negotiate future contracts with the IAM?

    Do you know how many 787 orders from ANA were directly tied to the Japanese heavies doing a big portion of the work.

    Why do you think that Airbus only has 7% of the Japanese airliner market?

    That is global economy, global deal making at work for you. You are thinking like a mercantilist king. Good luck with that.

    What Boeing has learned and the strategic advantage they have gained for the future by splitting up the 787 project, is worth any delays and any compensation they have to pay. Many times over.

    As for Harvard MBAs like Alan Mulally, just voted CEO of the year, beating up Steve Jobs, by the readers of Fortune Magazine, they are doing much better than the non Harvard MBAs that were running HBC, GM, etc. What is the point? Some are great, some are not. But since no Harvard MBA is unionized, they can all be fired on the spot. Try firing your $20/HR rivet pusher in Seatle or Tolouse.

    That is why their numbers are going down, down, down.

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  37. Hi T2. Thanks for posting the article.

    While the author correctly identified HBCs problems with low margins, bloated assembly costs, dismal R&D and a derivative heavy approach, he leaped to a conclusion, that makes no sense.

    The KIng Air - only solution would be the equivalent of GM selling all brands and keeping only Pontiac. He provides no rational to that solution.

    HBC needs to address it's problems head on. Production costs are high. So lower them. Go to Mexico or use that threat to extract union cincessions Sales costs are high? Move sales force to 100% commission based. There are plenty of unemployed aviation sales people ready to jump at the chance. Competition is increasing, maximize R&D - outsource design together with subcomponents, like Boeing did. Stop the BE and Hawker derivatives and launch new Programs that can get bigger margins. Debt is high - renegotiate or file. Or find a Middle East Sheik to bite.

    Selling pieces to keep the oldest and soon to face even more competition kin air line is just plain silly.

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  38. Well, Baron, to his everlasting credit Alan Mulally does NOT have a Harvard MBA. He has a BS and Masters in Engineering from the University of Kansas and a Masters in Management from MIT.

    For as long as they have been building jet airliners sub-assemblies have been outsourced to different firms in different countries for a variety of reasons, offsetting the purchase price for the country buying the airplanes being one. This is not news at all and has not been news for forty years. What is new is the desire to offer the work to an unqualified foreign supplier because of perceived projected labor savings on the assemblies farmed out. That's where the $2 an hour sheet-metal worker comes in. Sounds great until you scrap 100% of your multi-million dollar sub-assemblies because your exploited workforce could care less. They may be illiterate and they may be poor, but they are rarely stupid. You would have to be a Harvard MBA to even try such a bone-headed stupid move. A Harvard MBA with no engineering experience at all. Like Piper has.

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  39. "outsource design together with subcomponents, like Boeing did."

    Are you completely out of your mind?

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  40. You are aware, that Boeing outsourced 787 build components to countries (Mainly Italy and Japan) that have higher costs of labor than the US, right?

    Just a little detail.

    The IAM and UAW are so bad, that Companies from Boeing to Ford would rather pay a supplier to use higher cost Japanese, German, Italian labor than to deal with them.

    That says a lot about the desirability of US Union workers to an employer.

    P.S. Yes - the MIT guys are better than the Harvard guys :) LOL :)

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  41. "You are aware, that Boeing outsourced 787 build components to countries (Mainly Italy and Japan) that have higher costs of labor than the US, right?

    Just a little detail."

    Yes Baron, I am aware. its called offset. It has nothing to do with the IAM. Read my post.

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  42. Did you guys get the spanking that the IAM has been getting from Delta?

    Three votes rejecting the IAM as a union from Delta employees by more than 2 to 1.

    What a great sight to see. Hundreds of Delta employees lining up the streets with signs "Vote No to Union", "We Don't Need the IAM", "IAM is not for Me".

    Awesome. Americans are finally starting to get it.

    The ways of the UAW and IAM and AFL/CIO are counter productive to them and our economy.

    Congratulations to the Delta, gate agents, ramp workers, baggage handlers, flight attendants, all of whom rejected the IAM and every other Union. Only the fat pilots are represented by a Union now.

    Make sure to congratulate them on your next Delta flight.

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  43. ASM: "its called offset. It has nothing to do with the IAM. Read my post. "

    And the "offset" from Seattle to South Carolina?

    Could it be offsetting the IAM tax? :)

    All Northwest (now Delta) employees, just got a pay raise - they no longer have to pay the IAM fat cat with deductions from their pay.

    Thank you to the Southern Atlanta majority. Yeah!!!!

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  44. If Delta is so wonderful why is the quality of their service in the toilet with USAirways and United? Was there really any difference in service between the old Northwest just before the merger and Delta? No. Will you see any savings in airfare. No, just the opposite. Will the non-union employees have any real increase in pay and benefits. No. Will the executives find ways to garner more money for themselves. "You Betcha"!
    I used to go out of my way to fly Delta. Now crawling on broken glass from A to B is preferable.

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  45. It is simple. Union heavy, Detroit-based NW was failing flying 40 year old DC-9s.

    Union light, Atlanta based Delta was doing better and gobbled NW up.

    The merged workforce had to decide. Union or no Union.

    They chose no union by 2.5 to 1.

    Population of Detroit has been going down for 3 decades from over 2M to way unde 1M. They are now talking of converting all the borded up crack houses back to farm land.

    Atlanta population continues to explode.

    The South rises again - LOL

    Over taxed, over unionized cities and states continue to decline.

    Simple and beautiful.

    Will that alone insure Delta's future success? No. Will it increase the odds? Yes.

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  46. Lets see, Delta's pilots are unionized, everyone else is not. Southwest Airlines pilots and mechanics are unionized. Therefore I should fly Delta because they have better service and cheaper fares than Southwest and Atlanta is a better place to live than Dallas. Think I have got it now.

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  47. Gadfly,

    Been reading about some strange doin's at Sandia Park... a family that doesn't wear any clothes. It's too cold for that sort of thing and I hope you'll go talk to them.

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  48. Dark Blossom

    ‘Better in winter weather than summer. About a dozen years ago in the summer, in the Sandia Park area, I stopped to deal with a “rattle snake” . . . I would have ignored the snake, but nearby, a little kid was playing in his yard and I figured the snake might not be up to any good. For whatever reason, the rattler didn’t like me killing him with a garden hoe . . . he expressed an extremely unfriendly attitude. You get a snake that size up close and personal, within “spittin’ distance”, and showing a nice set of fangs, you take notice of subtle little things like “attitude” and it appears I woke him up from a nice afternoon nap, there on the pavement.

    It measured exactly 50 inches from “nose” to the tip of his last rattle . . . and I realized you can’t stretch or shrink a rattle snake . . . they measure exactly what they are. And they smell bad. “Frozen” and sent to a friend in Minnesota, he became a “belt”.

    The folks you mention are better off dealing with the cold, and the police, in winter . . . than a rattler. That’s not a safe area to run around in a one button suit. But I suspect they also smell bad.

    For every one “caught”, there’s probably a dozen more “un-caught” . . . and that applies to rattlesnakes, as well.

    gadfly

    (Between I-40/ “Old 66" and up the back way (North 14) to Santa Fe, there are many left-overs of the “flower children” . . . long since gone to seed . . . and many strange situations. ‘Many stories best left untold! And the children, and grand-children, are paying the price.)

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  49. How much, I would count it a privilege to sit down over lunch, or whatever, and discuss aviation, or other important things of life, with any of you who read the comments on this blogsite.

    So often, we chase around the minor things, and so seldom "home in" on the most important issues.

    Do you remember the first time you "flew", all by yourself? Do you remember how it felt to float above the earth? . . . all by yourself? Don't ever forget that early experience, and allow flying to become "routine".

    There are other things, even more exciting, and . . . No!, I'm not thinking about going into the depths of the ocean, and spending weeks, and more . . . beneath the waves (although that has its place).

    But then, by now, you know the "gadfly".

    gadfly

    (Rattlesnakes . . . I remember at least three other rattlesnake incidents, that almost claimed the lives of folks, near and dear . . . and that's like the dangers of life . . . things happen when you least expect them.)

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  50. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  51. Gadfly,

    Your commentary reminds me of living in Santa Fe and driving through Cerrillos and Madrid. There are some really weird dudes and dudettes living in that part of New Mexico.

    Different subject - thank you again for the very nice time we spent in your shop with you and your son.

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  52. And so this whole ordeal about private planes and FAA registration... what's up with that?

    A while back I found this article and thought it was B95. (Long story.) So I didn't post it because I didn't think it fair to reveal someone's identity.

    Now that I know it is NOT our Lion, I am posting it now because it is relevant -- and sadly funny!

    FC

    Not Lion but King

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  53. There was an interview of John King talking about the incident in August attached to this article above. The video seems to be gone. Sorry about that. John King was funny -- the incident was NOT! In fact it was down right scary for the Kings as he had explained.

    FC

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  54. Dark Blossom

    Remember that stretch going north on "14" out of Madrid, and those final curves down the hill over an arroyo, with the left turn into Cerrillos?

    At one time, over on the left side (west side) of the highway was a two story house. Some movie company bought the building (back in the early 1970's), with agreement to clean up the mess . . . which they did. For a chase scene, they brought a car down the mountain at high speed (going north), took the hard left, but not the hard blind right, went off the road, and went directly through the top floor of that old house. Which movie? . . . I totally dis-remember! How they made the "take off" and "landing" without killing a stunt driver, I have no clue. The actual drop for the car would have been about thirty feet, into the sandy arroyo.

    There's no remains of the house nor the car. One day the house was "there" . . . a week later it was only a memory.

    Somehow, there must have been a connection between that house and the mining town in Madrid. And I would have liked to see the final demise of the massive coal mining structure on the side of the mountain, just uphill and southeast of Madrid. But, all that is now gone, except for the black tailings giving witness to the early efforts to bring coal to the railroads, and the gold mining operations down in Golden, NM, etc.

    Today, the only thing up that way that "flies" is the leftover drug culture . . . and they don't appear to be "airworthy".

    gadfly

    (The old drunk asked the bartender for some "Old Squirrel". "Don't you mean, 'Old Crow?'" "Nope! . . . 'Don't vant to fly, yust vant to yump around a little!")

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  55. Hovering Mist

    "And so this whole ordeal about private planes and FAA registration... what's up with that?"

    For whatever reason, the "FAA" has decided to remind terrorists that another means of delivering their un-wanted parcels by air is possible through over 100,000 unregistered vehicles. And, to be consistent, the public must be punished for the failure of paid government employees to do their job.

    gadfly

    (As we all know, airplanes, like guns, are inherently evil . . . re-register them early and avoid the holiday rush.)

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  56. Economic Impact of 9/11 Attacks: $25B

    Economic Impact of the US Gvmt Response to 9/11 Attacks: $2,500B and counting.

    B95s Suggested Response: $100.00 Memo to Airlines - From now on, in a highjack situation, do *NOT* comply with hijackers demands.

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  57. It took about 30 minutes for the passengers aboard UA 93 to figure that out.

    But 9 years later, the US gvmt still thinks that grouping the crotch of 8 year old girls at airports and pointing guns at C172 pilots on a flown as filed IFR flight plan is what will make a difference.

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  58. It would seem that people since 9/11 have a lot more confidence in taking down the bad guys as a group -- especialy on an airplane. Where are the terrorists going to go? If it's a choice of fight these guys in the air and maybe live or die vs not fight and for sure die going down in the aircraft then I will choose to fight.

    In the good old days hijackers used to sit on the runway and make demands?! That was before, when they actually wanted to live and get someplace. What were they thinking! Why not just die and go no place instead!

    Still I don't understand what all the fuss is about the FBS. Who cares! I think people are WAY over reacting to that. It's all incredibly ridiculous like the whole wide world right now.

    Bring back the FBS Limbo I say!
    With good PR they could have made it simple and fun. Ladies - don't worry bout your underwire bras or jewelry. EVERYBODY gets to keep their shoes on...TSA blew it by adding the full monty pat down! Idiots.

    FC
    PS, John King's interview about his holdup in Santa Barbara is back up on link above: Not Lion but King.

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  59. FC-

    Thanks for the tail of John King's travails. His name is my name too.

    Over the years our namesakes have
    -Done time in the local State Prison
    -Been fired from employment (at the same place I worked, which caused lots of fun with time cards, job references, etc.)
    -Had a business fail and not paid their debts (fun with mortgage applications and business credit)
    -Intercepted a good part of my company e-mail without forwarding it at a prior job (lot's of angry people asking "Why don't you answer my mail messages!")
    -Managed to get on the terrorist watch list (making airline travel even more of an adventure)
    -And of course, anchored programs for CNN (the only one without bad personal consequences)

    But life remains good.
    Keep on blogging, folks-we "lurkers" enjoy it even when we're not posting!

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  60. Teledyne Continental Motors is being bought out by a Chinese firm for 186 million dollars. The deal should be finished this spring.

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  61. No Skids:

    Nice to hear there are lurkers. Your life sounds VERY challenging, but great at the same time. CNN really? WOW!

    Somehow my career has had detrimental consequences on my personal life as well on more than one occaision. Could it be because I stand up for what I believe. Would imagine that is the same for you...

    ASM:
    Last I heard ex-eclipser dude continues to maintain all is well in fish wrapper land. Think he's full of fish tales!!! Perhaps they are trying to keep up with the Chinese investors?
    FC

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  62. FC,

    Tis the season of Christmas cheer and I believe every good thing said about the Altaire program.
    Every. Single. Good. Thing. You should too!

    (maybe)

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  63. FC,

    Update! Things are going so well at Piper that they just laid off 12 people today (Dec 15th) according to Randy Groome, the Beech impresario and guru of marketing who, while making a hefty salary himself as a newbie, managed to get his daughter hired at Piper as well.

    The local fishwrapper (TCPalm.com) has the details

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  64. ASM:

    I believe in Santa Claus, I believe in Santa Claus, I believe Santa Clause will fly the mock-up of his Altaire around the world delivering gifts to all the good little boys and girls.

    Oh, and what a perfectly magical time of year to lay off the elves (Piper support staff) right before Christmas when all was quiet in the house, nothing stirring not even a mouse...

    God bless those poor families in Vero Beach, God bless them one and all. :(

    FC

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  65. FC,

    Our newbie boy has been bringing in quite a few of his buddies who were flipping burgers in the hustings. My guess is that the twelve laid-off were the long-time Piper employees displaced by cronies of the aforementioned Beech dude. More bloodletting from the worker-bee side due after Christmas.

    Someday FC you will be able to stand on the ramp and look up at the sky while wave after wave of Altaires fly over in formation shaking the very ground with the throaty roar of their mighty jet engines. Then you will realize that a few families having their Christmases destroyed is totally trivial!

    Seig Heil! Or Allah Akbar! Or whatever.

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  67. Below are some quotes from the TC Palm fish wrapper talking about Piper:

    "I would say the Rats (upper management) are fleeing the sinking ship.... But they already did, the only ones left are the mice....."

    (Sounds JUST like a comment I read on the Critic NG almost two years ago....)

    "Hold on ... there are still plenty of rats left. It's just that the new ones are carpetbaggers from out of town (Randy Groom and his buddies that he has brought in with fat salaries). In the meantime, they have been loose and free with their version of the truth ever since Kevin Gould said Piper would sell 75% more aircraft this year than last ... something Randy Groom kept saying until recently, even though everyone at Piper knew it wasn't true. And that business about never leaving Vero? The word here around the plant is that Piper has promised the Sultan that they'll move the manufacturing of their low-end models (trainers) to Brunei next year. No wonder Groom says sales next year will probably be worse than this year (more layoffs anyone?). Even if they sell the volume they say they're going to sell this year, it'll be in low-end models for a lot less revenue. These guys are whistling past the graveyard and betting no one will notice. In the meantime, Randy Groom continues bringing in all his buddies at big salaries and making sure his daughter doesn't get laid off (that's right, she works for him -- could have been a job that one of the long-time Piper employees and a Vero resident could have had. Must be nice to be the daughter of the boss). Merry Christmas, Piper!!!!"

    There are plenty many more really pissed-off people on this site. Read it and weep. Are we surprised ASM?

    FC

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  68. I don't think the long-term Piper folks that were laid-off to make room for Groom's buds are going to go quietly into the night.

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  69. I happen to know, for a fact, that some of those management folks at Piper are going to Disney world tomorrow. (Can't bring myself to make comment.)

    FC

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  70. Disney World? That should 'ratchet' tensions up notch among the laid-off.

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  71. Okay, well one management person I know is going with older kids. It's just ironic that's all.

    I don't want to inflame the situation at all. I just think they should have waited to lay off people until after the holidays. Probably top mangement people are just as scared as everyone else. So why not go to Disneyworld while you can?!

    Andy, maybe a new thread?

    FC

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  72. Found an article that Peg Bilson was to speak at the Fall 2010 Embry-Riddle graduation ceremony:
    http://azaviationjournal.com/embry-riddle-alumna-peg-billson-returns-to-address-fall-2010-graduates.html

    Has anyone else been able to find video or a transcript of her comments?? Just curious what she may have to say these days...

    e.d.t.

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  73. "Andy, maybe a new thread?"

    Certainly, FC. It's always a toss-up for me when to cut in (time, post count, end of particular exchange, etc...).

    Thanks.

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