Just read the Flying article and it brought back memories of blogs gone by. I'd like to think the advent of the Internet blog saved many from making a big mistake regarding the Eclipse. Having said that it appears the new company is sorting out the situation and 'what you see is what you get'.
The Charles Darwin Award comes to mind (natural selection... only the fittest survive) but it doesn't work here. Captain Edward Smith and Vern Raburn had both reached the age of reproduction and may have passed their genes along.
BT, Well said. Then there is Piper. A Collier Trophy for putting a turbofan in the back end of a Meridian and taking two and half years from first flight to realize that it......didn't.......work.
Piper is a cautionary tale about leveraging what you have to what you would like to have.
And as far as Vern's Darwin award-I don't think prior reproduction disqualifies you-the intent is to prevent future reproduction.
But according to one of your own, memorable posts, that may not be an issue-you wrote in June 2009-looking "back" from 2019
After a long courtship Vern Raburn and Jim Campbell were married. The ceremony was held in the Green Mountains of Vermont, one of the first states to permit gay marriage . . . Few of the twenty-nine bloggers named in the 2008 lawsuit were able to attend . . . .
My very limiting understanding of reproduction suggests that if your post is accurate, Vern (and Jim) have eliminated themselves from consideration for the Darwin, after all . .
One less thing to trouble us in a troubled world . . . .
Sadly you remind us of a quotation by the ‘other’ Black Tulip. One of the Administration’s new federal bureaucracies unmasked the original Black Tulip and had him tried for “crimes against the State including a demonstrated insensitivity to its multicultural inhabitants of diverse tendencies”. This is clearly illustrated by the hateful quote you offer.
I understand from family members the ‘other’ Black Tulip is now in the TSA Re-Education and Re-Training Camp in Biloxi, Mississippi and is received personal instruction from Secretary Janet Napolitano. Hopefully the shock treatments will have left a few neurons and synapses.
If you cross a Meridian with a single Turbofan engine, you get a thrust that goes bassackwards, making the origins of the Piperjet the winner of the Darwinian devolution award. Huh, which way did you say is up?
Just read the Flying article and it brought back memories of blogs gone by. I'd like to think the advent of the Internet blog saved many from making a big mistake regarding the Eclipse. Having said that it appears the new company is sorting out the situation and 'what you see is what you get'."
BT,
I think you nailed it. While the Eclipse 500 will never be the sub-million dollar wonderjet that people dreamed about, Mason Holland and team continue to move the company forward, and the jet still seems to have a shot at production. Depending on price, support and long-term reliability (including some of the build techniques discussed here), I think there could be a good little niche for the Eclipse 500. They're definitely headed the right direction.
“…the jet still seems to have a shot at production.”
In my opinion it is a very long shot. Two factors work against it. An aging fleet of roomier, more comfortable jets is available. Controller.com lists 33 Cessna Citation Jets for sale, most well less than $2 million in asking price. Expect to see more of them retrofitted with up-to-date avionics such as the Garmin 1000. These factors will weigh against the perceived lower operating cost of the Eclipse.
As you point out though, current owners must be relieved and happy with their situation. I would guess getting rid of the Garmin 400 and obtaining FMS capability would be tops on their wish list.
Just saw your post to me at the end of the last thread. If I get a decent offer I will buy what I can in San Diego, for sure!
What I am concerned about is being able to sell my house in ABQ. It's very modest and in an excellent location, but I could take a loss... and I will if I have to.
BTW for those of us who are barely making it these days, I think ASM is spot on with his figures. When basic needs cost a few hundred more dollars a month, then it is felt drastically by most of the working middle income folks like me -- and that includes highly educated people like me.
Sorry, as you suggest, I can't refinance my house that is less than 5,000 dollars underwater. So life is not all that sweet for those who don't have as much as for those who do...
I still totally appreciate your optimism of course!
You guys are all drawing the wrong conclusions to wrong analogies.
The captain of the Titanic had the highest chance of success amongst all the ships crossing the Atlantic at that time - most experience, best vessel ever build, hand picked crew, design engineers on board, etc, etc, etc.
Yet he failed and killed hundreds by hitting an ice cube with a steel hull. What are the ods?
Vern had the least chance of success - no experience in the field, big ego, startup company going up against entrenched competition, Gvmt regulation up the whazoo, etc, etc, etc.
Yet - he went farther than anyone in the preceding 4 decades. Certified a bird, when most here claimed it couldn't be done. Produce 250 - most of which are still flying, got Part-135 certificates for commercial operation, got a respected award, and this month, is AGAIN, on the cover of the largest magazine in the trade.
Vern/Eclipse is like the 75 year old with a hip replacement and a pacemaker running a marathon and passing all the 20, and 30 year olds (Piper, Cirrus, etc), and limping to the finish just behind the Kenyan champ (Cessna) and the South American challenger (Embraer).
Most people standing at the finish line would be applauding the 75 year old.
BT, AMS, ATM, would be like "Man that guy is a fool to run this marathon, he ain't gonna make it - BOO - look he is not as fast as that Kenyan or that Brazilian guy - Boo"
That, my friends, is *SAD* - and is the only reason I stuck around the past few blogs.
This ground has been pretty well trod. The few of us who check in here occasionally know you recognize Vern Raburn as a heroic figure. He did lead the funding, development and certification of a new twin-engine ‘business’ jet.
But he also left a great deal of wreckage behind. Hundreds of millions of ‘invested’ dollars were lost, some by unqualified ‘investors’ who had no business in this game. The big tents at Oshkosh drew thousands of naïve buyers - deposit money flowed like water. Vern is not the first entrepreneur to be accused of deceptive behavior and bad decisions, but the smoking crater he left is unique in aviation history.
What ‘could-a-been’ is intriguing… if only Vern understood the risks he was undertaking:
A new airframe with unproven manufacturing techniques.
A new engine, which in hindsight appears unlikely to have ever worked.
A new avionics system, which in hindsight seems conventional.
A stifling desire to retain or take possession of any important intellectual property.
An inability to freeze design goals, establish technical interfaces with vendors and maintain constructive relationships.
"Yet he failed and killed hundreds by hitting an ice cube with a steel hull. What are the ods?"
Actually they are very good if you go full speed through and ice field after you have been warned not to. Add in a perfectly calm night so the lookouts could not see any waves breaking on the bergs and you are set up perfectly. Throw in poor seamanship by going to max reverse with hard rudder rather than just hard rudder and you lessen the effectiveness of the rudder just enough to let you scrape the berg.
At least the builders built the Titanic according to the rules in force at the time; they didn't have to bribe some harridan in the British government to get a seaworthiness certificate.
Vern was a liar. Without lying the Eclipse Saga might have stopped after the first flight with the Williams engines. And these are his own words. The air taxi phrase was used as vehicle to attract customers although the Eclipse was never designed for heavy usage. M&M had been talking about a bigger Eclipsde! Eclipse was TU before the TC.
The Eclipse is just a niche product. M&M estimated a market seize of about 60 fpjs p.a.
As some said: It is really expensive to develop and produce a/cs - one has to invest a huge fortune. But MRO enables one to earn a fortune!
I am afraid you made a titanic mistake comparing Vern to the Captain of the Titanic! But hey, at least a word was coined from out of it.
Blog readers: Take note of some of comments on the You tube link. ASM called it even better.
The captain and/or helmsman made a huge mistake and many souls were lost. Vern and company made huge mistakes and there are many people and their familes, (men, women, and children) who are still paying for those "mistakes."
Piper's own Titanic captain, the ex-Beech dude in charge of marketing, has hired another (surprise) ex-Beech dude as the VP of Engineering. The new guy was most recently working for a windmill manufacturer before coming to Piper. You could not make this stuff up.
Don't know any of the players in this case but know that some marketeers don't make good CEOs. Expect product line expansion, lower prices, lower margins, vast inventory and an ongoing debate over direct versus distribution.
Not worried about the engineer... propeller-turbine, turbine-propeller?
FC said ---- Vern and company made huge mistakes and there are many people and their familes, (men, women, and children) who are still paying for those "mistakes."
-------------
I'm sorry, what am I missing here? Did Eclipse kill anyone? What women and children are paying for what?
So Eclipse created the equivalent of 10,000 person-years worth of employment in a depressed area of the US. Taxes were paid. Salaries were paid. Unemployment insurance were paid. Etc, etc, etc.
1,000 people (on average) over 10 years (give or take) - that is 10,000 person years worth of employment.
Ask ANY person on ANY depressed area of the US, the following question: "Would you like a company to come in and create 1,000 jobs for 10 years, knowing that in the end it will go bankrupt and lay everyone off?"
I doubt you will find a single person who says no.
I take it back - you will probably find 4 bloggers here to say no - the ones that say no to everything, except French style functionaire type jobs.
FC - you are young and smart - don't let failure sour your off for trying. Life would be boring and stale without failure.
I get your drift (pun intended). We all can be smart asses sometimes at others expense on the blog, but really you did set yourself up for that one! Thanks for the good humor about it.
I would like to know the stats for how many Eclipse employees lost their jobs here in ABQ in 2008 (right before the bottom fell out of the economy) are employeed again vs how many are at the end of their unemployment checks? How many families are still here or had to leave making the economy even less viable in ABQ? How many families are on complete welfare now? Hmm sounds like a job for and anthropologist....
AS for me I will not give up -- I do learn from my own failures, I do still have a great future ahead of me. I am passionate about life and feel lucky in many ways ,but I am also a very compassionate person when it comes to people who suffer by the negligent actions of others. Negligence and the lack of integrity and cronyism runs rampant in New Mexico. It's sickening.
FC
PS ASM: Are Beecher Dudes recreating above situation in Fisher Wrapper land?
The writing is on the wall. Next step will be for ex-Beech dude in marketing to find another ex-Beech dude to take over his marketing gig. This action will free himself up to take over the president's slot ("it's a tough job, but somebody's go to do it"), and the Imprimis CEO can return again to his coloring book. The palace coup will be complete. Long term? There is no long term. Intermediate term? Toast.
BARON'S HEROS Vern Raburn Bernie Madoff Ben Johnson Danny Almonte Gregor MacGregor Rosie Ruiz Ferdinand Demara Stella Walsh
All these folks were hailed as great at one point, until later discovered to be liars, imposters and cheats.
I would not glorify Vern... he developed a plain plane, touted it as a revolutionary aircraft, lied about the popularity (orders) by a long shot, and lied about the development program progress all along. He cost his supporters a lot of money, and never even completed the aircraft. He swindled investors and customers and suppliers, and he skirted the regulations. All the while, he disparaged the industry.
Pointing to Vern as an example of entrepreneurship is like calling Bernie Madoff a great banker... I know how much the reality hurts Baron's head, but Cessna and Embraer ARE examples of entrepreneurs in this case. They marketed and delivered terrific littler jets, on time, and on budget. They spent a fraction of what Vern blew, and they correctly determined the selling price, the market demand, and operating specs of their crafts, communicated the reality, built a customer base, and delivered what they promised. The jobs they created were real jobs (nothing like French Functionaires) to develop and build REAL aircraft, in realisitc numbers, based on real customers and their requirements. They were certified according to real regulations, without requirirng special treatment, looking the other way, bending rules reuird to "stamp" unfinished aircraft.
In the history of aviation, the man you glorify will be insignificant, but for all the money he burned, and the colossal miscalculations and overall deception he perpetrated. His name will be on the Collier Trophy as a reminder that we should remain skeptical... keep a critical mind, and continue to question and seek the truth.
Vern is a blemish to aviation. Just like those listed above are blemishes in their respective field...
PS. you do everyone a disservice by characterizing Vern's behavior as required for entrepreneurship. I prefer the ethical calculated honest brand of entrepreneurial risk taking. You make it seem like somehow these traits are antithetical to entrepreneurship.
I'm on record on all the previous blogs as being one of the first to question and criticize Vern's untrainable claims, half truths and shenanigans. I have no particular admiration for Vern other than having a goal and going about pursuing it intensely. I bind his personality quite distasteful actually. But he got out of his chair and went to bat for his idea. I don't vilify him for trying or for failing. I criticize him simply for the way he failed. Enough of that.
I'm also on record praising Cessna on the Mustang, Embraer and Gulfstream on all their projects. It is not an either or.
FC, I'm sorry, but as PhD, you can't possibly think that removing something that you created and maintained in the first place can ever be a negative.
So is it better to never ever create a job unless you can be certain that that job will be there for eternity?
If that is the standard, than no job but tyrannically guaranteed job can ever be created.
I also find it extremely distasteful to think of Americans as stupid, meek, powerless, clueless victims that can't evaluate the risk/reward potential of a job.
But enough of that. DOW 12,000 is here. The Obaminator, like Clinto, got the message (or is faking it well) , that business is not the enemy, the benefits of the recession in lowering housing costs and borrowing costs for Americans for decades to come (mortgage rates below 4%) is firmly in place, every major industry except GA is growing.
Oooops - except GA. Got that? Even housing and manufacturing is growing. Except GA.
This is a sick and dysfunctional industry.
We need another Jobs/iPhone-like event to shock it back into health, just like Apple/iPhone brought the giant Nokia down (lost 75% or market cap) and transformed an entrenched oligopolic industry.
Yep. Vern was not the guy. Eclipse was not the vehicle. But don't be fooled. Business as usual in GA is simply managing the death spiral of the industry. The industry is sick and will remain in hospice care indefinitely until it gets shocked back to life by innovation. And yes - someone will have to take on the FAA - going over their idiotic ways.
I can make GA safer by requiring two ATP pilots and part 125 standards for light piston aircraft. It will be safer because no one will be flying. Stupid FAA requiring a type rating to fly a 6,000 lb plane but not for a 12,500 lb plane because the turbine fan is in a tube rather than outside is idiotic.
Jolly good, Baron!! "This is a sick and dysfunctional industry"
not true, just a lagging one. There are leading and lagging indicators. Aviation, due to the extreme cost of development and production, the extreme time consuming nature of the technology development cycles, etc... takes longer to spool up, and down... so, it lags.
Actually I have learned a thing or two or three from you. Serious! A while back you made me see that it is better to create jobs even if they are not long standing. I didn't used to think that way nor had I ever really considered it. Now I do.
Finding facts in terms of a fall-out doesn't mean that Eclipse shouldn't have existed in the first place. That I am clear on. It most likely would have been so much better for so many people if it had achieved its goals and mission.
In the mean time, wouldn't actual stats of what happened to all the former employees at Eclipse be interesting? Maybe they have all moved on to wonderful careers, maybe not. No one seems to really know.
I apply this attitude towards Piper Land as well. GA is going to have to be VERY innovative as you say. Commercial aircraft probably will pave the way and as far as I am concerned Embraer is doing a fine job! (Another thing I learned from you.)
Also, BTW I do not think you ever idealized Vern at all. I think you sometimes set yourself up for lots of ridicule. Would this blog be fun without you? No! That's the brave lion part of you. You do have courage and I admire that.
I'm quite comfortable in my skin to take criticism and ridicule - particularly on something as trivial as an Internet blog. Sometimes I take minority positions just for fun :)
To answer your question - Yes - absolutely - I'm interested in the human and economic implications of Eclipse/GA failures - the sudden dislocations were painful and real.
ATM, I'm sorry, but the GA customers are dying off - it is not a business cycle lag. There are more GA pilots dying than being certificated. More planes being scrapped than built. More owners giving up than buying airplanes. There are more airports closing than being built. More FBOs closing than opening. Less GA fuel being consumed.
NOT since 2008. Since 1978. Three decades of decline.
You can't seriously look at owner-flow/personal GA and get away with any conclusion other than it is dying off.
Make no mistake - this industry will continue to decline until it is shocked back to common sense. That means, congress, the FAA, OEMs, owners, unions, etc. It will not stabilize, let alone prosper as is.
And hearing insiders like you claiming that all is great - is very troublesome. I won't name the pathology involved here, but it begins with a "D".
GA is not just "GA owner flown", but I see your point, and its a good one. I see this as a cycle, though, much like riding horses was once a good way to travel, and since the invention of cars, fewer horses are used for travel as opposed to being use as a hobby. MOST airplanes in the world are very old single engine props. During WWI and WWII pilots were trained and a lot of planes were made. Since then, airlines became popular, and then biz jets and larger GA turbo props have been developed and poularized. I am sure the value of the last 5 years of GA aircraft production exceeds the value of the entire previous history of GA owner flown aircraft production. I'm not sure what THIS indicates, except perhaps most smaller GA Owner aircraft are now used mostly for fun??
There ARE 10,000 small GA prop planes in the active charter fleet. That's 10,000 out of almost 200,000 small GA prop planes in the fleet. Just as a point of reference...
Planes, trains, automobiles? I don't have the answer, but I do see a trend, or perhaps a cycle. Lifecycle. The older props have run their course, and the newer tech jet aircraft are being used for transport...
If we were a serious nation, wanting to revive an industry we invented and led by decades, we could revive owner/biz flown GA with a one paragraph law.
Every plane less than 12,500 lbs is self certified by the manufacturer to conform to an industry technical standard. Liability to the design, except in the case of fraud is limited to the sale/transaction price of the plane and is limited to 10 years after production. Liability limits are increased by 200% if fraud or gross negligence is a primary contributor. Pilots/owners require a certificate of insurance with liability limits up to the market value of the airframe or $250,000, whichever is lower, that being the liability limits to pilots/owners. Liability limits are increased by 200% if gross negligence is a primary factor. Insurance companies must have an industry defined set of requirements to insure and set premiums for pilots. The FAA is forbidden from charging user fees for non-commercial flights. Airports can only charge use fees based on a non-discriminatory basis based on MTOW and time of day.
There are a lot of industies we "invented" that I am not sure we should decide "govenmnetally" to support/perpetuate.
Its a nice romantic way to think, but impractical, in my opinion.
While I don't disgagree with the idea of limiting liability claims, per se, on anything let alone GA... I don't think perpetuating antiquated prop plane production is fundamentally a great idea.
It decided against Vern, for obvious (to some) reasons... and for other models and companies...
The same goes for some other GA products/companies...
This is a story that may fall on deaf ears . . . but is relevant to the comments made that somehow the provision of a thousand jobs, if only temporary, was somehow beneficial to the Albuquerque economy.
Once upon a time, I managed an up and coming company that was building huge fiberglass domes. Some of our “new hires” had been making fiberglass lay-ups for years and were “experts”. They poured the polyester resin into the mat, and spent countless hours rolling out the entrapped air. I showed them a “new way” . . . putting down the resin first, and allowing the chopped-glass mat to sink into the resin, without the need to roll out the bubbles. You’d think that I had insulted their mother, or worse. They refused to learn a better way.
Eclipse hired many new people . . . taught them the “old way”, or failed to teach them at all. And it/they failed . . . no surprise. But they at least taught a thousand or more folks how “not” to do it . . . and someone else will need to “un-train” those well meaning folks.
“Back then”, I found that I could better train a man off the street to do proper lay-ups of fiberglass re-enforced polyester resin panels than to “re-train” an expert.
Here, I’m only guessing . . . but I venture that not over one in a hundred (and that is most optimistic) knows how to drill a burr-free precision rivet hole in aircraft aluminum skin, in a precise location . . . and properly “set” a rivet. And today there are at least a few hundred “experts” who can honestly put on their resume that they have assembled jet airframes to “spec”.
But I wouldn’t trust one, if my life depended on it. Come to think of it . . . my life would depend on it, if I were to fly one of their masterpieces.
Did Eclipse do the aircraft industry any favors? You be the judge, but there’s at least a few hundred “experts” that will forever find it most difficult to be “retrained”.
gadfly
(Funny thing . . . on an HD “show-n-tell” the other night . . . some show that shows “How’s it made”, they were showing the manufacture of custom surf boards . . . and they were laying the woven glass mat into the resin . . . and on HD, I didn’t notice a single entrapped bubble. Finally, someone else figured it out. ‘Wish I had that video to show my crew forty years ago. But then . . . who knows!)
And, you may question, why didn't that fiberglass dome company find success? Well, since we're on a similar subject, and in Albuquerque, the time was the early 1970's. The time is of little import . . . the first hot-air balloon festival was just down the street . . . also of little import.
The product was good . . . actually, excellent (like our famous little jet . . . at least in concept). And we had some early excellent success . . . in fact, a string of excellent products. But there was a primary problem . . . not so different from our little aircraft company. The folks at the top didn't know how to tell the truth.
In the case of the fiberglass products, the major stock holders were involved in oilwell recovery tools . . . reach down a few thousand feet and recover something dropped or broken . . . also excellent products . . . and wide open markets for the oilwell tools, and the fiberglass domes . . . but the owners didn't know how to tell the truth, and somehow they did things that were not only dishonest, but against the law.
Once, a year later, I watched my "ex-boss" on TV, in hand-cuffs, on his way to the Federal Building, being escorted, of course.
A few years later, I met up with him again, after he had served his time in a Federal "tennis club" . . . nice guy, but couldn't seem to get the big picture that doing things honestly, and legally, although not so exciting, can bring success.
The "Eclipse" had every opportunity to succeed . . . but lacked honesty. The rest of their problems were simply the normal following events . . . no mystery to the story. Oh, and did I mention "pride"? Yep, Adam had a problem with "pride" . . . and he just passed it down.
gadfly
(The fiberglass thing . . . very viable, even today, and I'd pass the basics on to anyone interested. But there comes on rare occasions a rare opportunity to "fill a nitch" . . . but time and old age don't wait around very long . . . and it comes down to what could have been.)
Hi ATM. Not asking for gvmt support. Simply asking for a reduction in gvmt hindance - like requiring ATP-like performance from pilots for a type rating to fly a 5,500 lbs single engine Diamond Jet but not to fly a 12,500+ lbs King Air 200/250/350 twin-engine 35,000 ft plane.
Logic please?
And the intent is NOT to perpetuate Barons and Bonanzas pistons certified before the age of FAA lunacy and ABA tort ways.
The intent is precisely to end them and encourage the new tech planes that will ignite demand and value for customers.
So you are saying that most of the people who were trained while working at Eclipse did not at least walk away with some decent skills? Yikes!The scenario just keeps getting worse and worse.
Also, I think that there are many readers who are very interested in your materials science based analogies. I know I am.
No, I'm not saying that they didn't come away with some decent skills, but they received a "mix" of good and bad . . . with the scales being loaded toward the bad. And, unfortunately, many, if not most, do not have the mature skill level to discern the difference.
There are no mysteries here . . . Any shop foreman who has had to deal with graduates of some vocational schools has had to deal with these same problems. The problem with Eclipse, from all that I've learned, is that the supervisors did not have the technical skills to sort out the various problems and properly direct the good aptitudes in the right direction, and help the other folks either get out of the business, or go into areas better suited to their skills.
As the "vine" in the book of Jonah, Eclipse came up in a night, and withered in a night, after having been eaten by a worm. We'll leave discussion of the worm for another time.
But good companies need a long time to grow . . . and a committed and skilled management. Eclipse came up like a mushroom, and died in the morning heat. It had neither the means, nor the time to build a strong technical/skilled base on which to grow.
Coupled with the all-too-rapid-growth, they also lacked the basic honesty/integrity so absolutely necessary for sustained survival.
Although the early first flight was a confirmation of what many of us suspected, there was no attempt to clean up the inside structure. But then, that was no surprise.
gadfly
(Hopefully, the former employees will learn about human behavior, and recognize their need to gain good solid training in manufacturing . . . and count this as the "negative" part of their overall training. Most, if not all of us, have had similar experiences. The winners are those that gain wisdom from the bad experiences, and do what they can to avoid a repeat.)
Thank you for the clarification. I especially like you mushroom analogy. Hubris, dark and damp can create... but will it thrive in the full sun light of day? Integrity kind of works that way too. hmm...
B95:
NOt sure If I understand and correct me if I am wrong please. Are you saying eliminating the use of pilot/owner single/twin aircraft that are more that are 20 plus years old and held together with duct tape and use AM radios and analog avionics for navigation might be a good idea to move GA forward?
No. I'm talking about moving the industry forward with self-regulation (like light sport technical standards) and liability limits for up to 10 years (could be 15). Let Cessna and Beech and Honda set the plane technical standards, not the clueless FAA. Let insurance companies set the pilot requirements, not the clueless FAA.
Slowly older planes will become non-competitive and be euthanize. Meanwhile, new technology will flow into the liberated (from the FAA) new designs.
I'd like to throw something strange up on to the wall for debate:
Does anyone think that Eclipse Aerospace would be better off -- from a "Business Plan" and profitably standpoint -- if they got a type cert / production cert on the EA400 single-engine jet?
I'm not saying they should end the EA500 completely; maybe limit production to 10-20 per year. But instead try to sell 100+ EA400s per year around $1.5 mil each. I think that could give EA a unique advantage versus Cessna, Honda, etc. Maybe EA wouldn't be stuck in limbo like other GA companies because of the current glut of used twin-engine jets. Everyone seems to agree that the "air taxi" biz model has been vaporized, so why not focus your limited $$$ on getting the high net-worth GA owner/operators who have the means and desire to own a jet?
I vaguely remember reading a quote from a Boeing executive -- years ago -- admitting that the main thing competing against a new 737 was a used 737. I'm sure M&M are considering that fact as it relates to the EA500 and how much more time it will take for the market to settle and consume all the surplus. The market should reject new ES500's at the $2.15 mil price unless there is real "product differentiation" against the existing fleet. Selling EA400s might be a tad easier, and yet, still profitable.....
EDT, The I believe the EA400 is just a one-off exercise and nowhere near certification. It has been estimated that it will cost 100's of millions for Piper to re-design their single-engine jet. It would probably be equally expensive for Eclipse to get a type certificate and then a production certificate for the EA400. Eclipse doesn't even currently have a Production Certificate for the one airplane they hold the Type Certificate for. Eclipse has no design staff and no production work force.
I look for a further shake-out in the industry. Maybe Cessna will buy Hawker-Beech and they can then share the same Mexican factories? Piper is a dead-man walking. Cirrus might make it but the service center in China is iffy.
I think airtaximan is correct - the hobby pilot sector is dead, except for things like the Czech Sport for the weekend VFR pilot. Anybody that wants to do more than that will have to become a corporate or charter pilot and live with miserable pay and poor working conditions. But some pilots luck out and get into good jobs with good companies.
The day of the owner-pilot putting the family into a modern, shrunken, el-cheapo version of a Lear Jet and flying them to a vacation spot just is not going to happen as the insurance will not be available. The old saying has never been more correct: "If you can afford an airplane, you can afford an airplane and pilot". The would-be owner-pilot may not want it that way but as Wally Cronkite used to say "That's the way it is".
EDT, the best move along those lines would be a Sikorsky-sponsored merer of Elcipse and Diamond.
That would result in the only complete modern light plane model line up. From DA20 trainers to DA40 personal piston to DA50 pressurized step-up to DA42 twin trainer, light personal twin, to D-Jet, to Eclipse.
And the D-jet (with all its problems) is way closer to certification/production than any other SEJ.
The only problem is that, there are no profits to be made in a dieing industry.
GA today is like trying to sell coal-fired, steam powered pleasure boats.
Thanks for your insight. I don't have Baron's knowledge of Diamond, but a merger sounds like a goood idea in order to have a complete product line.
I suppose the moral of this tale is that GA is such a unique animal -- that it will **NEVER** be an industry one can (or should) deliver to the public via mass production. It would be like giving a new Corvette to every 16-year old. And then insurance companies would react by charging an extreme amount of money for pilots, even if they have a type-cert since no way to cram 20yrs of experience into a new pilot. Vertical integration would be absurd, if OEMs were allowed to sell insurance in order to boost production. For every one John Travolta you would see 100 JFK Jr's; I will never forget where I was in New Jersey in July 1999 when his plane when down. My reaction was pragmatically simple since I am a big believer in division-of-labor: WHY on earth would you want to fly your own plane when you have gobs of money to hire a **professional** pilot?
ATM: scary that Vern is still listed as a Director of Icon....
Can someone tell us about ICON? I notice their trendy collection of wearing apparel... much like Eclipse at an early stage. Will ICON ship aircraft or will it become another Terafugia?
E.D.T. there is no fix for light/personal GA, unless there are structural changes made to certification and liability.
There is nothing wrong with 16 year-olds having Corvettes, so long as Corvettes are made safe (traction/stability control, etc), and there are strict limits on liability and there are graduated requirements to operate.
If an 18 year old can operate a tank and a 20 year old can operate an F22, certainly a 16 year old can operate a Corvette. It is all in the systems you put around it.
If you have to graduate through kart racing, etc before you get to the Corvette, etc, it can all be safe.
Until there are common sense industry and gvmt reforms, it will be a money loosing decreasing market industry - the first large 20th century industry to die. VCRs and LPs will die next.
Actually a 20 year-old cannot operate an F-22. You have to be 21 to be a commissioned officer and flight school takes a year after that. Then a newly graduated pilot is going nowhere near an F-22 until he has some experience, seasoning, and flight time in other less-expensive high-performance aircraft. That upgrade would typically occur no less than seven years into service. EDT is exactly correct; you cannot cram years of experience and judgement into a new pilot.
There are times when it is not a good idea to argue over minutia. B95 has a good point. Govt. regulation is not helping GA at all, but bringing it down.
Hey, I drove my "Old" 67 Mustang V8 engine at age 16 through the mountains of Colorado by myself and across the parks of Denver going way too fast with a bunch of teenage girls. Did I crash, because of lack of experience? No. I had the feel for a car and the road. If it had been a 1976 Corvette, I would have been in paradise!
I figured I would post some contact information inline (feels like it's hanging out a little less here than in a main post) in case anybody needs/wants it.
My email address: andygroth21@gmail.com Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/andygroth21
For Facebook, just mention you are from the blog as I get the occasional spam friend request.
Think there are some real issues here to still contend with...
Airplanes, GA, lost, not lost, young, old, female, male, business, govmt, dollars...GA is here to stay until we are able to transport people ala Star trek.
“…the jet still seems to have a shot at production.”
In my opinion it is a very long shot. Two factors work against it. An aging fleet of roomier, more comfortable jets is available. Controller.com lists 33 Cessna Citation Jets for sale, most well less than $2 million in asking price. Expect to see more of them retrofitted with up-to-date avionics such as the Garmin 1000. These factors will weigh against the perceived lower operating cost of the Eclipse.
As you point out though, current owners must be relieved and happy with their situation. I would guess getting rid of the Garmin 400 and obtaining FMS capability would be tops on their wish list."
BT,
I've certainly been where you're at with your opinion, but I think that shot just keeps getting better. I don't know exactly what to make of the very recent Eclipse/Sikorsky deal (in terms of what it means), but it has to be a good thing.
Mason has done a wonderful job of working with current owners. Nobody can keep everyone happy, but I know a number of owners that I've met over the years in the Cirrus community and they are loving their jets and support.
Regarding your Mustang post, I know a few guys who have upgraded to those, as well, and they are also loving their jets.
IIRC, you are in a Phenom, or is that somebody else? Spectacular airplane. Talk about aiming for the heart of the CJ1 (which, no doubt, is a nice airplane, but a lot more expensive).
"EDT, The I believe the EA400 is just a one-off exercise and nowhere near certification."
ASM,
That's correct, and it wasn't even built by Eclipse. The new Eclipse is focused on supporting current customers, improving the aircraft, and restarting production of the EA500.
Another comment about your Mustang post. Very true! The $2M range used Mustang is probably the biggest competition for the Eclipse. FWIW, I know at least a few guys that still chose the Eclipse based on, among other things, higher cruise speeds and lower fuel burns. I'm not saying that would be my criteria, but it's real-world data. That said, I also know guys who have picked the Mustang between the two because of the company backing it.
I forgot to mention, the fuel flows on the Citations (other than the Mustang) along with maintenance costs are a huge turnoff to the guys I've known looking to step up to a jet.
"The market should reject new ES500's at the $2.15 mil price unless there is real "product differentiation" against the existing fleet. Selling EA400s might be a tad easier, and yet, still profitable....."
EDT,
People put different weights on various differentiations, but there are going to be some good differences between all but the current Total Eclipse and a new Eclipse EA500 if it goes into production.
Did you know that even the Total Eclipse (before any production restart) is going to have (or already does) an integrated IS&S FMS complete with the keyboard in the original Eclipse panel mockups?
Granted, the G1000 upgrade is a separate option, and it also pertains to non-Sierra Citations, but with two FJ44s strapped on, you don't have to worry about any "Slowtation" jokes. ;-) Plus, although initial cost will be a lot higher, aside from the huge performance increase, maintenance costs will be a lot lower and more predictable.
“Ben” was old, even then. He’d sold some folks on this concept of honeycomb fiberglass panel . . . and it was an excellent idea. He, and his two sons, had already proven the idea . . . and a small company in Denver was making excellent little utility building of the stuff . . . a story for another day. Ben brought his idea to Albuquerque, tied in with some “big time” operators and proceeded to produce some very spectacular structures . . . and that’s when I got involved . . . but, again, that’s a story for another day.
But Ben’s mind was also toying with other things . . . “flying”, to be precise, in a single man glider, with wings modeled after a bird’s wings . . . not to “flap”, mind you, but simply to gracefully glide over great distances.
So, in the background, while I was attempting to manage this new company (Advanced Structures, Inc.), and keep a crew of about sixteen people going in the right direction, while designing machinery/molds/designing new structures/ “bidding” new work with municipalities, etc., Ben was building his dream glider.
The wing tips were most important. They were constructed with long “balsa” feathered tips, that would flex like feathers on a bird, but coated with fiberglass fabric and polyester resin . . . very nicely made.
One day, unknown to me, Ben, and a dear friend and professional engineer (Ray, now deceased) went out to the “West Mesa” near “Volcano Cliffs” on the western border of Albuquerque . . . where Intel is now located. Ben had Ray tow the new glider behind Ray’s pickup truck. There was no communication between Ray and Ben, other than “hand signals” and maybe a loud shout, etc. Ray brought the tow line “up tight”, and Ben was launched into the air . . . more straight up, like a kite on a windy day, than a glider gently rising “into the sunset”. Well, Ray saw the image of an old man, going almost straight up, in the rear view mirror, and didn’t dare slow down, but continued on. It should be noted that Ray was an experienced pilot, with thousands of hours in his log . . . so he had a “feel” for what was happening. Well, such a trip west can only go so far on those (then) primitive dirt roads, and Ben had to come down. And he did!
Ray drove back to Ben, sitting amongst the glider, and a large patch of “prickly pear” cactus . . . Ben was contemplating the flaws in his design, the tow point location on the glider, and what to do differently on the “improved version”. Ben was more “bone” than flesh, so maybe he got off rather easy . . . but that must have been a sight.
There are many embarrassing moments and emergencies in aviation, such as the intake of castor oil, by the pilots in the “Great War”, flying behind those Gnome rotary engines, etc., . . . and many an unscheduled landing, behind the front . . . or anywhere of convenience.
gadfly
(Once, while “filming” a moon-rise over the Sandia Mountains, I squatted down into some prickly pear, while holding my little Bauer Super-8 camera rather steady . . . then limped home a couple blocks, to remove the needles from my posterior . . . with serious damage to my dignity.)
I'm glad someone can tell the two (Gad vs Bot) apart - I honestly can't :) :)
On other news...despite obvious troubles....Obaminator now wants to be BFF with businesses, stock market just set new 31-39 month highs today, consumers are spending, debt is down, the US gvmt is borrowing with negative real interest rates, manufacturing in the US is adding jobs in big numbers for the first time in decades, etc, etc, etc....
Except for light/owner-flown GA, which continues to shrink.
What is the excuse now?
Evolve or die! Be it hookers now getting 33% of bookings on Facebook or light GA finding a way to move to turbines, it is evolve or die.
If you hover over the user name, you can see a set of numbers at the end of the hyperlink address where it shows the hyperlink (in case of Chrome that I'm using, it's in the lower left-hand corner as I hover. That's why we call the real Gad "9941."
I've had to resort to that a few times. :-) However, if the post involves the Southwest or fabrication (materials, that is, not lies ;-)), it's probably the real Gad.
LOL - thanks for the tip - I'd hate to reply to a Bot by mistake....
On other news....
Sikorsky closed their equity investment in Eclipse last Friday.
Cessna sold a handful more jets (68 vs 59 or something like that) in Q4/2010 vs Q4/2009 - $100M value, and claim they will sell 150 SkyCatchers this year.
NetJets stopped losing frac share owners and for the first time had a net increase last Q.
So, some positive signs there. Only fair to report the good with the bad.
Andy,
ReplyDeleteJust read the Flying article and it brought back memories of blogs gone by. I'd like to think the advent of the Internet blog saved many from making a big mistake regarding the Eclipse. Having said that it appears the new company is sorting out the situation and 'what you see is what you get'.
I guess it is no longer surprising that Boeing delayed the 787 *again* to 3Q deliveries - 3 years late and counting.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like only Cessna, Embraer and Gulfstream are capable of delivering new jet designs on schedule.
In retrospect, Eclipse did remarkably well - and went much farther than any startup could have conceivably gone.
I think Vern did deserve the Collier award after all.
Is there an equivalent award for the captain of the Titanic? After all he almost made it to New York.
ReplyDeleteThe Charles Darwin Award comes to mind (natural selection... only the fittest survive) but it doesn't work here. Captain Edward Smith and Vern Raburn had both reached the age of reproduction and may have passed their genes along.
ReplyDeleteBT, Well said. Then there is Piper. A Collier Trophy for putting a turbofan in the back end of a Meridian and taking two and half years from first flight to realize that it......didn't.......work.
ReplyDeleteASM,
ReplyDeleteWonder what the pitch change felt like... power lever idle to takeoff thrust? The prototype at NBAA was unsightly.
BT-
ReplyDeletePiper is a cautionary tale about leveraging what you have to what you would like to have.
And as far as Vern's Darwin award-I don't think prior reproduction disqualifies you-the intent is to prevent future reproduction.
But according to one of your own, memorable posts, that may not be an issue-you wrote in June 2009-looking "back" from 2019
After a long courtship Vern Raburn and Jim Campbell were married. The ceremony was held in the Green Mountains of Vermont, one of the first states to permit gay marriage . . . Few of the twenty-nine bloggers named in the 2008 lawsuit were able to attend . . . .
My very limiting understanding of reproduction suggests that if your post is accurate, Vern (and Jim) have eliminated themselves from consideration for the Darwin, after all . .
One less thing to trouble us in a troubled world . . . .
No Skids,
ReplyDeleteSadly you remind us of a quotation by the ‘other’ Black Tulip. One of the Administration’s new federal bureaucracies unmasked the original Black Tulip and had him tried for “crimes against the State including a demonstrated insensitivity to its multicultural inhabitants of diverse tendencies”. This is clearly illustrated by the hateful quote you offer.
I understand from family members the ‘other’ Black Tulip is now in the TSA Re-Education and Re-Training Camp in Biloxi, Mississippi and is received personal instruction from Secretary Janet Napolitano. Hopefully the shock treatments will have left a few neurons and synapses.
ASM:
ReplyDeleteIf you cross a Meridian with a single Turbofan engine, you get a thrust that goes bassackwards, making the origins of the Piperjet the winner of the Darwinian devolution award. Huh, which way did you say is up?
BT:
Is the 'other' BT at camp with Gadbot in Biloxi?
FC
From Black Tulip:
ReplyDelete"Andy,
Just read the Flying article and it brought back memories of blogs gone by. I'd like to think the advent of the Internet blog saved many from making a big mistake regarding the Eclipse. Having said that it appears the new company is sorting out the situation and 'what you see is what you get'."
BT,
I think you nailed it. While the Eclipse 500 will never be the sub-million dollar wonderjet that people dreamed about, Mason Holland and team continue to move the company forward, and the jet still seems to have a shot at production. Depending on price, support and long-term reliability (including some of the build techniques discussed here), I think there could be a good little niche for the Eclipse 500. They're definitely headed the right direction.
Andy,
ReplyDelete“…the jet still seems to have a shot at production.”
In my opinion it is a very long shot. Two factors work against it. An aging fleet of roomier, more comfortable jets is available. Controller.com lists 33 Cessna Citation Jets for sale, most well less than $2 million in asking price. Expect to see more of them retrofitted with up-to-date avionics such as the Garmin 1000. These factors will weigh against the perceived lower operating cost of the Eclipse.
As you point out though, current owners must be relieved and happy with their situation. I would guess getting rid of the Garmin 400 and obtaining FMS capability would be tops on their wish list.
I should have noted the 23 Cessna Mustangs for sale - all fairly new of course, Garmin 1000 equipped, and a few listed at around $2 million.
ReplyDeleteB95
ReplyDeleteJust saw your post to me at the end of the last thread. If I get a decent offer I will buy what I can in San Diego, for sure!
What I am concerned about is being able to sell my house in ABQ. It's very modest and in an excellent location, but I could take a loss... and I will if I have to.
BTW for those of us who are barely making it these days, I think ASM is spot on with his figures. When basic needs cost a few hundred more dollars a month, then it is felt drastically by most of the working middle income folks like me -- and that includes highly educated people like me.
Sorry, as you suggest, I can't refinance my house that is less than 5,000 dollars underwater. So life is not all that sweet for those who don't have as much as for those who do...
I still totally appreciate your optimism of course!
FC
You guys are all drawing the wrong conclusions to wrong analogies.
ReplyDeleteThe captain of the Titanic had the highest chance of success amongst all the ships crossing the Atlantic at that time - most experience, best vessel ever build, hand picked crew, design engineers on board, etc, etc, etc.
Yet he failed and killed hundreds by hitting an ice cube with a steel hull. What are the ods?
Vern had the least chance of success - no experience in the field, big ego, startup company going up against entrenched competition, Gvmt regulation up the whazoo, etc, etc, etc.
Yet - he went farther than anyone in the preceding 4 decades. Certified a bird, when most here claimed it couldn't be done. Produce 250 - most of which are still flying, got Part-135 certificates for commercial operation, got a respected award, and this month, is AGAIN, on the cover of the largest magazine in the trade.
Vern/Eclipse is like the 75 year old with a hip replacement and a pacemaker running a marathon and passing all the 20, and 30 year olds (Piper, Cirrus, etc), and limping to the finish just behind the Kenyan champ (Cessna) and the South American challenger (Embraer).
Most people standing at the finish line would be applauding the 75 year old.
BT, AMS, ATM, would be like "Man that guy is a fool to run this marathon, he ain't gonna make it - BOO - look he is not as fast as that Kenyan or that Brazilian guy - Boo"
That, my friends, is *SAD* - and is the only reason I stuck around the past few blogs.
Baron,
ReplyDeleteThis ground has been pretty well trod. The few of us who check in here occasionally know you recognize Vern Raburn as a heroic figure. He did lead the funding, development and certification of a new twin-engine ‘business’ jet.
But he also left a great deal of wreckage behind. Hundreds of millions of ‘invested’ dollars were lost, some by unqualified ‘investors’ who had no business in this game. The big tents at Oshkosh drew thousands of naïve buyers - deposit money flowed like water. Vern is not the first entrepreneur to be accused of deceptive behavior and bad decisions, but the smoking crater he left is unique in aviation history.
What ‘could-a-been’ is intriguing… if only Vern understood the risks he was undertaking:
A new airframe with unproven manufacturing techniques.
A new engine, which in hindsight appears unlikely to have ever worked.
A new avionics system, which in hindsight seems conventional.
A stifling desire to retain or take possession of any important intellectual property.
An inability to freeze design goals, establish technical interfaces with vendors and maintain constructive relationships.
"Yet he failed and killed hundreds by hitting an ice cube with a steel hull. What are the ods?"
ReplyDeleteActually they are very good if you go full speed through and ice field after you have been warned not to. Add in a perfectly calm night so the lookouts could not see any waves breaking on the bergs and you are set up perfectly. Throw in poor seamanship by going to max reverse with hard rudder rather than just hard rudder and you lessen the effectiveness of the rudder just enough to let you scrape the berg.
At least the builders built the Titanic according to the rules in force at the time; they didn't have to bribe some harridan in the British government to get a seaworthiness certificate.
baron95,
ReplyDeleteVern was a liar.
Without lying the Eclipse Saga might have stopped after the first flight with the Williams engines. And these are his own words.
The air taxi phrase was used as vehicle to attract customers although the Eclipse was never designed for heavy usage. M&M had been talking about a bigger Eclipsde!
Eclipse was TU before the TC.
The Eclipse is just a niche product. M&M estimated a market seize of about 60 fpjs p.a.
As some said: It is really expensive to develop and produce a/cs - one has to invest a huge fortune. But MRO enables one to earn a fortune!
Julius
B95:
ReplyDeleteI am afraid you made a titanic mistake comparing Vern to the Captain of the Titanic! But hey, at least a word was coined from out of it.
Blog readers: Take note of some of comments on the You tube link. ASM called it even better.
The captain and/or helmsman made a huge mistake and many souls were lost. Vern and company made huge mistakes and there are many people and their familes, (men, women, and children) who are still paying for those "mistakes."
FC
titanic mistake
Piper's own Titanic captain, the ex-Beech dude in charge of marketing, has hired another (surprise) ex-Beech dude as the VP of Engineering. The new guy was most recently working for a windmill manufacturer before coming to Piper. You could not make this stuff up.
ReplyDeleteYou must be making this up.
ReplyDeleteDon't know any of the players in this case but know that some marketeers don't make good CEOs. Expect product line expansion, lower prices, lower margins, vast inventory and an ongoing debate over direct versus distribution.
Not worried about the engineer... propeller-turbine, turbine-propeller?
FC said ---- Vern and company made huge mistakes and there are many people and their familes, (men, women, and children) who are still paying for those "mistakes."
ReplyDelete-------------
I'm sorry, what am I missing here? Did Eclipse kill anyone? What women and children are paying for what?
So Eclipse created the equivalent of 10,000 person-years worth of employment in a depressed area of the US. Taxes were paid. Salaries were paid. Unemployment insurance were paid. Etc, etc, etc.
1,000 people (on average) over 10 years (give or take) - that is 10,000 person years worth of employment.
Ask ANY person on ANY depressed area of the US, the following question: "Would you like a company to come in and create 1,000 jobs for 10 years, knowing that in the end it will go bankrupt and lay everyone off?"
I doubt you will find a single person who says no.
I take it back - you will probably find 4 bloggers here to say no - the ones that say no to everything, except French style functionaire type jobs.
FC - you are young and smart - don't let failure sour your off for trying. Life would be boring and stale without failure.
But, of course, you already knew that.
The others are too far gone to be saved :)
ReplyDelete"10,000 person-years worth of employment in a depressed area of the US"
ReplyDeleteThey also design and build hydrogen bombs nearby. Coincidental?
B95:
ReplyDeleteI get your drift (pun intended). We all can be smart asses sometimes at others expense on the blog, but really you did set yourself up for that one! Thanks for the good humor about it.
I would like to know the stats for how many Eclipse employees lost their jobs here in ABQ in 2008 (right before the bottom fell out of the economy) are employeed again vs how many are at the end of their unemployment checks? How many families are still here or had to leave making the economy even less viable in ABQ? How many families are on complete welfare now? Hmm sounds like a job for and anthropologist....
AS for me I will not give up -- I do learn from my own failures, I do still have a great future ahead of me. I am passionate about life and feel lucky in many ways ,but I am also a very compassionate person when it comes to people who suffer by the negligent actions of others. Negligence and the lack of integrity and cronyism runs rampant in New Mexico. It's sickening.
FC
PS ASM: Are Beecher Dudes recreating above situation in Fisher Wrapper land?
FC,
ReplyDeleteThe writing is on the wall. Next step will be for ex-Beech dude in marketing to find another ex-Beech dude to take over his marketing gig. This action will free himself up to take over the president's slot ("it's a tough job, but somebody's go to do it"), and the Imprimis CEO can return again to his coloring book. The palace coup will be complete. Long term? There is no long term. Intermediate term? Toast.
BARON'S HEROS
ReplyDeleteVern Raburn
Bernie Madoff
Ben Johnson
Danny Almonte
Gregor MacGregor
Rosie Ruiz
Ferdinand Demara
Stella Walsh
All these folks were hailed as great at one point, until later discovered to be liars, imposters and cheats.
I would not glorify Vern... he developed a plain plane, touted it as a revolutionary aircraft, lied about the popularity (orders) by a long shot, and lied about the development program progress all along. He cost his supporters a lot of money, and never even completed the aircraft. He swindled investors and customers and suppliers, and he skirted the regulations. All the while, he disparaged the industry.
Pointing to Vern as an example of entrepreneurship is like calling Bernie Madoff a great banker... I know how much the reality hurts Baron's head, but Cessna and Embraer ARE examples of entrepreneurs in this case. They marketed and delivered terrific littler jets, on time, and on budget. They spent a fraction of what Vern blew, and they correctly determined the selling price, the market demand, and operating specs of their crafts, communicated the reality, built a customer base, and delivered what they promised. The jobs they created were real jobs (nothing like French Functionaires) to develop and build REAL aircraft, in realisitc numbers, based on real customers and their requirements. They were certified according to real regulations, without requirirng special treatment, looking the other way, bending rules reuird to "stamp" unfinished aircraft.
In the history of aviation, the man you glorify will be insignificant, but for all the money he burned, and the colossal miscalculations and overall deception he perpetrated. His name will be on the Collier Trophy as a reminder that we should remain skeptical... keep a critical mind, and continue to question and seek the truth.
Vern is a blemish to aviation. Just like those listed above are blemishes in their respective field...
PS. you do everyone a disservice by characterizing Vern's behavior as required for entrepreneurship. I prefer the ethical calculated honest brand of entrepreneurial risk taking. You make it seem like somehow these traits are antithetical to entrepreneurship.
I'm on record on all the previous blogs as being one of the first to question and criticize Vern's untrainable claims, half truths and shenanigans. I have no particular admiration for Vern other than having a goal and going about pursuing it intensely. I bind his personality quite distasteful actually. But he got out of his chair and went to bat for his idea. I don't vilify him for trying or for failing. I criticize him simply for the way he failed. Enough of that.
ReplyDeleteI'm also on record praising Cessna on the Mustang, Embraer and Gulfstream on all their projects. It is not an either or.
FC, I'm sorry, but as PhD, you can't possibly think that removing something that you created and maintained in the first place can ever be a negative.
So is it better to never ever create a job unless you can be certain that that job will be there for eternity?
If that is the standard, than no job but tyrannically guaranteed job can ever be created.
I also find it extremely distasteful to think of Americans as stupid, meek, powerless, clueless victims that can't evaluate the risk/reward potential of a job.
But enough of that.
DOW 12,000 is here. The Obaminator, like Clinto, got the message (or is faking it well) , that business is not the enemy, the benefits of the recession in lowering housing costs and borrowing costs for Americans for decades to come (mortgage rates below 4%) is firmly in place, every major industry except GA is growing.
Oooops - except GA. Got that? Even housing and manufacturing is growing. Except GA.
This is a sick and dysfunctional industry.
We need another Jobs/iPhone-like event to shock it back into health, just like Apple/iPhone brought the giant Nokia down (lost 75% or market cap) and transformed an entrenched oligopolic industry.
Yep. Vern was not the guy. Eclipse was not the vehicle. But don't be fooled. Business as usual in GA is simply managing the death spiral of the industry. The industry is sick and will remain in hospice care indefinitely until it gets shocked back to life by innovation. And yes - someone will have to take on the FAA - going over their idiotic ways.
I can make GA safer by requiring two ATP pilots and part 125 standards for light piston aircraft. It will be safer because no one will be flying. Stupid FAA requiring a type rating to fly a 6,000 lb plane but not for a 12,500 lb plane because the turbine fan is in a tube rather than outside is idiotic.
Jolly good, Baron!!
ReplyDelete"This is a sick and dysfunctional industry"
not true, just a lagging one. There are leading and lagging indicators. Aviation, due to the extreme cost of development and production, the extreme time consuming nature of the technology development cycles, etc... takes longer to spool up, and down... so, it lags.
Just is, what it is.
B95:
ReplyDeleteActually I have learned a thing or two or three from you. Serious! A while back you made me see that it is better to create jobs even if they are not long standing. I didn't used to think that way nor had I ever really considered it. Now I do.
Finding facts in terms of a fall-out doesn't mean that Eclipse shouldn't have existed in the first place. That I am clear on. It most likely would have been so much better for so many people if it had achieved its goals and mission.
In the mean time, wouldn't actual stats of what happened to all the former employees at Eclipse be interesting? Maybe they have all moved on to wonderful careers, maybe not. No one seems to really know.
I apply this attitude towards Piper Land as well. GA is going to have to be VERY innovative as you say. Commercial aircraft probably will pave the way and as far as I am concerned Embraer is doing a fine job! (Another thing I learned from you.)
Also, BTW I do not think you ever idealized Vern at all. I think you sometimes set yourself up for lots of ridicule. Would this blog be fun without you? No! That's the brave lion part of you. You do have courage and I admire that.
FC
FC,
ReplyDeleteI'm quite comfortable in my skin to take criticism and ridicule - particularly on something as trivial as an Internet blog. Sometimes I take minority positions just for fun :)
To answer your question - Yes - absolutely - I'm interested in the human and economic implications of Eclipse/GA failures - the sudden dislocations were painful and real.
ATM, I'm sorry, but the GA customers are dying off - it is not a business cycle lag. There are more GA pilots dying than being certificated. More planes being scrapped than built. More owners giving up than buying airplanes. There are more airports closing than being built. More FBOs closing than opening. Less GA fuel being consumed.
NOT since 2008. Since 1978. Three decades of decline.
You can't seriously look at owner-flow/personal GA and get away with any conclusion other than it is dying off.
Make no mistake - this industry will continue to decline until it is shocked back to common sense. That means, congress, the FAA, OEMs, owners, unions, etc. It will not stabilize, let alone prosper as is.
And hearing insiders like you claiming that all is great - is very troublesome. I won't name the pathology involved here, but it begins with a "D".
GA is not just "GA owner flown", but I see your point, and its a good one. I see this as a cycle, though, much like riding horses was once a good way to travel, and since the invention of cars, fewer horses are used for travel as opposed to being use as a hobby. MOST airplanes in the world are very old single engine props. During WWI and WWII pilots were trained and a lot of planes were made. Since then, airlines became popular, and then biz jets and larger GA turbo props have been developed and poularized. I am sure the value of the last 5 years of GA aircraft production exceeds the value of the entire previous history of GA owner flown aircraft production. I'm not sure what THIS indicates, except perhaps most smaller GA Owner aircraft are now used mostly for fun??
ReplyDeleteThere ARE 10,000 small GA prop planes in the active charter fleet. That's 10,000 out of almost 200,000 small GA prop planes in the fleet.
Just as a point of reference...
Planes, trains, automobiles? I don't have the answer, but I do see a trend, or perhaps a cycle. Lifecycle. The older props have run their course, and the newer tech jet aircraft are being used for transport...
This would seem logical.
If we were a serious nation, wanting to revive an industry we invented and led by decades, we could revive owner/biz flown GA with a one paragraph law.
ReplyDeleteEvery plane less than 12,500 lbs is self certified by the manufacturer to conform to an industry technical standard. Liability to the design, except in the case of fraud is limited to the sale/transaction price of the plane and is limited to 10 years after production. Liability limits are increased by 200% if fraud or gross negligence is a primary contributor. Pilots/owners require a certificate of insurance with liability limits up to the market value of the airframe or $250,000, whichever is lower, that being the liability limits to pilots/owners. Liability limits are increased by 200% if gross negligence is a primary factor. Insurance companies must have an industry defined set of requirements to insure and set premiums for pilots. The FAA is forbidden from charging user fees for non-commercial flights. Airports can only charge use fees based on a non-discriminatory basis based on MTOW and time of day.
GA Fixed. Next.
There are a lot of industies we "invented" that I am not sure we should decide "govenmnetally" to support/perpetuate.
ReplyDeleteIts a nice romantic way to think, but impractical, in my opinion.
While I don't disgagree with the idea of limiting liability claims, per se, on anything let alone GA... I don't think perpetuating antiquated prop plane production is fundamentally a great idea.
It decided against Vern, for obvious (to some) reasons... and for other models and companies...
The same goes for some other GA products/companies...
This is a story that may fall on deaf ears . . . but is relevant to the comments made that somehow the provision of a thousand jobs, if only temporary, was somehow beneficial to the Albuquerque economy.
ReplyDeleteOnce upon a time, I managed an up and coming company that was building huge fiberglass domes. Some of our “new hires” had been making fiberglass lay-ups for years and were “experts”. They poured the polyester resin into the mat, and spent countless hours rolling out the entrapped air. I showed them a “new way” . . . putting down the resin first, and allowing the chopped-glass mat to sink into the resin, without the need to roll out the bubbles. You’d think that I had insulted their mother, or worse. They refused to learn a better way.
Eclipse hired many new people . . . taught them the “old way”, or failed to teach them at all. And it/they failed . . . no surprise. But they at least taught a thousand or more folks how “not” to do it . . . and someone else will need to “un-train” those well meaning folks.
“Back then”, I found that I could better train a man off the street to do proper lay-ups of fiberglass re-enforced polyester resin panels than to “re-train” an expert.
Here, I’m only guessing . . . but I venture that not over one in a hundred (and that is most optimistic) knows how to drill a burr-free precision rivet hole in aircraft aluminum skin, in a precise location . . . and properly “set” a rivet. And today there are at least a few hundred “experts” who can honestly put on their resume that they have assembled jet airframes to “spec”.
But I wouldn’t trust one, if my life depended on it. Come to think of it . . . my life would depend on it, if I were to fly one of their masterpieces.
Did Eclipse do the aircraft industry any favors? You be the judge, but there’s at least a few hundred “experts” that will forever find it most difficult to be “retrained”.
gadfly
(Funny thing . . . on an HD “show-n-tell” the other night . . . some show that shows “How’s it made”, they were showing the manufacture of custom surf boards . . . and they were laying the woven glass mat into the resin . . . and on HD, I didn’t notice a single entrapped bubble. Finally, someone else figured it out. ‘Wish I had that video to show my crew forty years ago. But then . . . who knows!)
And, you may question, why didn't that fiberglass dome company find success? Well, since we're on a similar subject, and in Albuquerque, the time was the early 1970's. The time is of little import . . . the first hot-air balloon festival was just down the street . . . also of little import.
ReplyDeleteThe product was good . . . actually, excellent (like our famous little jet . . . at least in concept). And we had some early excellent success . . . in fact, a string of excellent products. But there was a primary problem . . . not so different from our little aircraft company. The folks at the top didn't know how to tell the truth.
In the case of the fiberglass products, the major stock holders were involved in oilwell recovery tools . . . reach down a few thousand feet and recover something dropped or broken . . . also excellent products . . . and wide open markets for the oilwell tools, and the fiberglass domes . . . but the owners didn't know how to tell the truth, and somehow they did things that were not only dishonest, but against the law.
Once, a year later, I watched my "ex-boss" on TV, in hand-cuffs, on his way to the Federal Building, being escorted, of course.
A few years later, I met up with him again, after he had served his time in a Federal "tennis club" . . . nice guy, but couldn't seem to get the big picture that doing things honestly, and legally, although not so exciting, can bring success.
The "Eclipse" had every opportunity to succeed . . . but lacked honesty. The rest of their problems were simply the normal following events . . . no mystery to the story. Oh, and did I mention "pride"? Yep, Adam had a problem with "pride" . . . and he just passed it down.
gadfly
(The fiberglass thing . . . very viable, even today, and I'd pass the basics on to anyone interested. But there comes on rare occasions a rare opportunity to "fill a nitch" . . . but time and old age don't wait around very long . . . and it comes down to what could have been.)
Hi ATM. Not asking for gvmt support. Simply asking for a reduction in gvmt hindance - like requiring ATP-like performance from pilots for a type rating to fly a 5,500 lbs single engine Diamond Jet but not to fly a 12,500+ lbs King Air 200/250/350 twin-engine 35,000 ft plane.
ReplyDeleteLogic please?
And the intent is NOT to perpetuate Barons and Bonanzas pistons certified before the age of FAA lunacy and ABA tort ways.
The intent is precisely to end them and encourage the new tech planes that will ignite demand and value for customers.
Sir Gadfly:
ReplyDeleteYour comments never fall on deaf ears!
So you are saying that most of the people who were trained while working at Eclipse did not at least walk away with some decent skills? Yikes!The scenario just keeps getting worse and worse.
Also, I think that there are many readers who are very interested in your materials science based analogies. I know I am.
FC
Floating Cloud
ReplyDeleteNo, I'm not saying that they didn't come away with some decent skills, but they received a "mix" of good and bad . . . with the scales being loaded toward the bad. And, unfortunately, many, if not most, do not have the mature skill level to discern the difference.
There are no mysteries here . . . Any shop foreman who has had to deal with graduates of some vocational schools has had to deal with these same problems. The problem with Eclipse, from all that I've learned, is that the supervisors did not have the technical skills to sort out the various problems and properly direct the good aptitudes in the right direction, and help the other folks either get out of the business, or go into areas better suited to their skills.
As the "vine" in the book of Jonah, Eclipse came up in a night, and withered in a night, after having been eaten by a worm. We'll leave discussion of the worm for another time.
But good companies need a long time to grow . . . and a committed and skilled management. Eclipse came up like a mushroom, and died in the morning heat. It had neither the means, nor the time to build a strong technical/skilled base on which to grow.
Coupled with the all-too-rapid-growth, they also lacked the basic honesty/integrity so absolutely necessary for sustained survival.
Although the early first flight was a confirmation of what many of us suspected, there was no attempt to clean up the inside structure. But then, that was no surprise.
gadfly
(Hopefully, the former employees will learn about human behavior, and recognize their need to gain good solid training in manufacturing . . . and count this as the "negative" part of their overall training. Most, if not all of us, have had similar experiences. The winners are those that gain wisdom from the bad experiences, and do what they can to avoid a repeat.)
Sir Gadfly:
ReplyDeleteThank you for the clarification. I especially like you mushroom analogy. Hubris, dark and damp can create... but will it thrive in the full sun light of day? Integrity kind of works that way too. hmm...
B95:
NOt sure If I understand and correct me if I am wrong please. Are you saying eliminating the use of pilot/owner single/twin aircraft that are more that are 20 plus years old and held together with duct tape and use AM radios and analog avionics for navigation might be a good idea to move GA forward?
FC
No. I'm talking about moving the industry forward with self-regulation (like light sport technical standards) and liability limits for up to 10 years (could be 15). Let Cessna and Beech and Honda set the plane technical standards, not the clueless FAA. Let insurance companies set the pilot requirements, not the clueless FAA.
ReplyDeleteSlowly older planes will become non-competitive and be euthanize. Meanwhile, new technology will flow into the liberated (from the FAA) new designs.
most of the older planes can be bought and sold for $100,000 or less... some MUCH less. For hobbiests, these are fine.
ReplyDeleteFor transport, the new planes which are much costlier, make sense for most.
The market needs more affordable, much better performing planes for transport, not hobbiests.
This will be professionally flown planes.
For transport (professionally flown), the issues you bring up don't matter much. They don't effect the cost enough to matter.
But I whole heartedly agree that alignment regarding weight and complexity and pilot training requirements would be nice.
I'd like to throw something strange up on to the wall for debate:
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone think that Eclipse Aerospace would be better off -- from a "Business Plan" and profitably standpoint -- if they got a type cert / production cert on the EA400 single-engine jet?
I'm not saying they should end the EA500 completely; maybe limit production to 10-20 per year. But instead try to sell 100+ EA400s per year around $1.5 mil each. I think that could give EA a unique advantage versus Cessna, Honda, etc. Maybe EA wouldn't be stuck in limbo like other GA companies because of the current glut of used twin-engine jets. Everyone seems to agree that the "air taxi" biz model has been vaporized, so why not focus your limited $$$ on getting the high net-worth GA owner/operators who have the means and desire to own a jet?
I vaguely remember reading a quote from a Boeing executive -- years ago -- admitting that the main thing competing against a new 737 was a used 737. I'm sure M&M are considering that fact as it relates to the EA500 and how much more time it will take for the market to settle and consume all the surplus. The market should reject new ES500's at the $2.15 mil price unless there is real "product differentiation" against the existing fleet. Selling EA400s might be a tad easier, and yet, still profitable.....
e.d.t.
EDT, The I believe the EA400 is just a one-off exercise and nowhere near certification. It has been estimated that it will cost 100's of millions for Piper to re-design their single-engine jet. It would probably be equally expensive for Eclipse to get a type certificate and then a production certificate for the EA400. Eclipse doesn't even currently have a Production Certificate for the one airplane they hold the Type Certificate for. Eclipse has no design staff and no production work force.
ReplyDeleteI look for a further shake-out in the industry. Maybe Cessna will buy Hawker-Beech and they can then share the same Mexican factories? Piper is a dead-man walking. Cirrus might make it but the service center in China is iffy.
I think airtaximan is correct - the hobby pilot sector is dead, except for things like the Czech Sport for the weekend VFR pilot. Anybody that wants to do more than that will have to become a corporate or charter pilot and live with miserable pay and poor working conditions. But some pilots luck out and get into good jobs with good companies.
The day of the owner-pilot putting the family into a modern, shrunken, el-cheapo version of a Lear Jet and flying them to a vacation spot just is not going to happen as the insurance will not be available. The old saying has never been more correct: "If you can afford an airplane, you can afford an airplane and pilot". The would-be owner-pilot may not want it that way but as Wally Cronkite used to say "That's the way it is".
EDT, the best move along those lines would be a Sikorsky-sponsored merer of Elcipse and Diamond.
ReplyDeleteThat would result in the only complete modern light plane model line up. From DA20 trainers to DA40 personal piston to DA50 pressurized step-up to DA42 twin trainer, light personal twin, to D-Jet, to Eclipse.
And the D-jet (with all its problems) is way closer to certification/production than any other SEJ.
The only problem is that, there are no profits to be made in a dieing industry.
GA today is like trying to sell coal-fired, steam powered pleasure boats.
No-sale.
Owner flown GA, that is... Except for the Icon, of course..
ReplyDeleteASM, Baron, and ATM:
ReplyDeleteThanks for your insight. I don't have Baron's knowledge of Diamond, but a merger sounds like a goood idea in order to have a complete product line.
I suppose the moral of this tale is that GA is such a unique animal -- that it will **NEVER** be an industry one can (or should) deliver to the public via mass production. It would be like giving a new Corvette to every 16-year old. And then insurance companies would react by charging an extreme amount of money for pilots, even if they have a type-cert since no way to cram 20yrs of experience into a new pilot. Vertical integration would be absurd, if OEMs were allowed to sell insurance in order to boost production. For every one John Travolta you would see 100 JFK Jr's; I will never forget where I was in New Jersey in July 1999 when his plane when down. My reaction was pragmatically simple since I am a big believer in division-of-labor: WHY on earth would you want to fly your own plane when you have gobs of money to hire a **professional** pilot?
ATM: scary that Vern is still listed as a Director of Icon....
e.d.t.
This discussion brings to mind the Two Stone Theory of Merger/Acquisition:
ReplyDelete"If one stone will not float, tie another stone to it. See if two stones will float."
Can someone tell us about ICON? I notice their trendy collection of wearing apparel... much like Eclipse at an early stage. Will ICON ship aircraft or will it become another Terafugia?
ReplyDeleteI notice that they are taking deposits. Pay now and you will get a special paint job.
ReplyDeleteWeren't they supposed to deliver a year or two ago"
The spelling should have been Terrafugia which translates to 'futile ground vehicle' or 'inadequate flying machine'.
ReplyDeleteE.D.T. there is no fix for light/personal GA, unless there are structural changes made to certification and liability.
ReplyDeleteThere is nothing wrong with 16 year-olds having Corvettes, so long as Corvettes are made safe (traction/stability control, etc), and there are strict limits on liability and there are graduated requirements to operate.
If an 18 year old can operate a tank and a 20 year old can operate an F22, certainly a 16 year old can operate a Corvette. It is all in the systems you put around it.
If you have to graduate through kart racing, etc before you get to the Corvette, etc, it can all be safe.
Until there are common sense industry and gvmt reforms, it will be a money loosing decreasing market industry - the first large 20th century industry to die. VCRs and LPs will die next.
Actually a 20 year-old cannot operate an F-22. You have to be 21 to be a commissioned officer and flight school takes a year after that. Then a newly graduated pilot is going nowhere near an F-22 until he has some experience, seasoning, and flight time in other less-expensive high-performance aircraft. That upgrade would typically occur no less than seven years into service. EDT is exactly correct; you cannot cram years of experience and judgement into a new pilot.
ReplyDeleteASM:
ReplyDeleteThere are times when it is not a good idea to argue over minutia. B95 has a good point. Govt. regulation is not helping GA at all, but bringing it down.
Hey, I drove my "Old" 67 Mustang V8 engine at age 16 through the mountains of Colorado by myself and across the parks of Denver going way too fast with a bunch of teenage girls. Did I crash, because of lack of experience? No. I had the feel for a car and the road. If it had been a 1976 Corvette, I would have been in paradise!
FC
All I can say is that .... this young F16 pilotess can drive my Jag any tine.
ReplyDeleteI figured I would post some contact information inline (feels like it's hanging out a little less here than in a main post) in case anybody needs/wants it.
ReplyDeleteMy email address: andygroth21@gmail.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/andygroth21
For Facebook, just mention you are from the blog as I get the occasional spam friend request.
Hey Andy:
ReplyDeleteYou did excellent work to save the aviation blog.
WE are still here and totally appreciate it!
Think there are some real issues here to still contend with...
Airplanes, GA, lost, not lost, young, old, female, male, business, govmt, dollars...GA is here to stay until we are able to transport people ala Star trek.
Love (just feelin it tonight)
FC
Thanks, FC! I'm just glad so many people are still around. I'm hesitant to ask in case I missed him/her, but has uglytruth checked in here?
ReplyDeleteThere's a new post by he/she over at Aviation Critic & Enthusiast with updated news about Eclipse and Sikorski:
http://eclipseaerospace.net/news_indiv.php?id=17
It triggered another string of posts by Gadbot so it's seven or eight posts up from the bottom.
I'm a little hesitant to post over there again because I don't want to do anything that would attract a bot here.
From BT:
ReplyDelete"Andy,
“…the jet still seems to have a shot at production.”
In my opinion it is a very long shot. Two factors work against it. An aging fleet of roomier, more comfortable jets is available. Controller.com lists 33 Cessna Citation Jets for sale, most well less than $2 million in asking price. Expect to see more of them retrofitted with up-to-date avionics such as the Garmin 1000. These factors will weigh against the perceived lower operating cost of the Eclipse.
As you point out though, current owners must be relieved and happy with their situation. I would guess getting rid of the Garmin 400 and obtaining FMS capability would be tops on their wish list."
BT,
I've certainly been where you're at with your opinion, but I think that shot just keeps getting better. I don't know exactly what to make of the very recent Eclipse/Sikorsky deal (in terms of what it means), but it has to be a good thing.
Mason has done a wonderful job of working with current owners. Nobody can keep everyone happy, but I know a number of owners that I've met over the years in the Cirrus community and they are loving their jets and support.
Regarding your Mustang post, I know a few guys who have upgraded to those, as well, and they are also loving their jets.
IIRC, you are in a Phenom, or is that somebody else? Spectacular airplane. Talk about aiming for the heart of the CJ1 (which, no doubt, is a nice airplane, but a lot more expensive).
Also, just to clarify two posts up, I've known about the Sikorsky deal, but am not sure if uglytruth knows about us.
ReplyDeleteThe search options here seem to search thread headers but not posts inside the threads.
ReplyDeleteFrom ASM:
ReplyDelete"EDT, The I believe the EA400 is just a one-off exercise and nowhere near certification."
ASM,
That's correct, and it wasn't even built by Eclipse. The new Eclipse is focused on supporting current customers, improving the aircraft, and restarting production of the EA500.
BT,
ReplyDeleteAnother comment about your Mustang post. Very true! The $2M range used Mustang is probably the biggest competition for the Eclipse. FWIW, I know at least a few guys that still chose the Eclipse based on, among other things, higher cruise speeds and lower fuel burns. I'm not saying that would be my criteria, but it's real-world data. That said, I also know guys who have picked the Mustang between the two because of the company backing it.
I forgot to mention, the fuel flows on the Citations (other than the Mustang) along with maintenance costs are a huge turnoff to the guys I've known looking to step up to a jet.
ReplyDeleteFrom Eclipse Deep Throat:
ReplyDelete"The market should reject new ES500's at the $2.15 mil price unless there is real "product differentiation" against the existing fleet. Selling EA400s might be a tad easier, and yet, still profitable....."
EDT,
People put different weights on various differentiations, but there are going to be some good differences between all but the current Total Eclipse and a new Eclipse EA500 if it goes into production.
Did you know that even the Total Eclipse (before any production restart) is going to have (or already does) an integrated IS&S FMS complete with the keyboard in the original Eclipse panel mockups?
Here's a link to a picture of the panel:
Eclipse 500 Avio NG
To BT's point about older Citations with upgraded panels, here are two of my favorites:
ReplyDeleteSierra Industries Eagle II and Stallion
Granted, the G1000 upgrade is a separate option, and it also pertains to non-Sierra Citations, but with two FJ44s strapped on, you don't have to worry about any "Slowtation" jokes. ;-) Plus, although initial cost will be a lot higher, aside from the huge performance increase, maintenance costs will be a lot lower and more predictable.
Just a heads-up that I'll probably (if I remember) post a new thread tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete“Ben” was old, even then. He’d sold some folks on this concept of honeycomb fiberglass panel . . . and it was an excellent idea. He, and his two sons, had already proven the idea . . . and a small company in Denver was making excellent little utility building of the stuff . . . a story for another day. Ben brought his idea to Albuquerque, tied in with some “big time” operators and proceeded to produce some very spectacular structures . . . and that’s when I got involved . . . but, again, that’s a story for another day.
ReplyDeleteBut Ben’s mind was also toying with other things . . . “flying”, to be precise, in a single man glider, with wings modeled after a bird’s wings . . . not to “flap”, mind you, but simply to gracefully glide over great distances.
So, in the background, while I was attempting to manage this new company (Advanced Structures, Inc.), and keep a crew of about sixteen people going in the right direction, while designing machinery/molds/designing new structures/ “bidding” new work with municipalities, etc., Ben was building his dream glider.
The wing tips were most important. They were constructed with long “balsa” feathered tips, that would flex like feathers on a bird, but coated with fiberglass fabric and polyester resin . . . very nicely made.
One day, unknown to me, Ben, and a dear friend and professional engineer (Ray, now deceased) went out to the “West Mesa” near “Volcano Cliffs” on the western border of Albuquerque . . . where Intel is now located. Ben had Ray tow the new glider behind Ray’s pickup truck. There was no communication between Ray and Ben, other than “hand signals” and maybe a loud shout, etc. Ray brought the tow line “up tight”, and Ben was launched into the air . . . more straight up, like a kite on a windy day, than a glider gently rising “into the sunset”. Well, Ray saw the image of an old man, going almost straight up, in the rear view mirror, and didn’t dare slow down, but continued on. It should be noted that Ray was an experienced pilot, with thousands of hours in his log . . . so he had a “feel” for what was happening. Well, such a trip west can only go so far on those (then) primitive dirt roads, and Ben had to come down. And he did!
Ray drove back to Ben, sitting amongst the glider, and a large patch of “prickly pear” cactus . . . Ben was contemplating the flaws in his design, the tow point location on the glider, and what to do differently on the “improved version”. Ben was more “bone” than flesh, so maybe he got off rather easy . . . but that must have been a sight.
There are many embarrassing moments and emergencies in aviation, such as the intake of castor oil, by the pilots in the “Great War”, flying behind those Gnome rotary engines, etc., . . . and many an unscheduled landing, behind the front . . . or anywhere of convenience.
gadfly
(Once, while “filming” a moon-rise over the Sandia Mountains, I squatted down into some prickly pear, while holding my little Bauer Super-8 camera rather steady . . . then limped home a couple blocks, to remove the needles from my posterior . . . with serious damage to my dignity.)
Sir Gadfly:
ReplyDeleteCan't believe Gadbot is still active on old site, glad you are the real deal here! Even with your poignant stories!
FC
I'm glad someone can tell the two (Gad vs Bot) apart - I honestly can't :) :)
ReplyDeleteOn other news...despite obvious troubles....Obaminator now wants to be BFF with businesses, stock market just set new 31-39 month highs today, consumers are spending, debt is down, the US gvmt is borrowing with negative real interest rates, manufacturing in the US is adding jobs in big numbers for the first time in decades, etc, etc, etc....
Except for light/owner-flown GA, which continues to shrink.
What is the excuse now?
Evolve or die! Be it hookers now getting 33% of bookings on Facebook or light GA finding a way to move to turbines, it is evolve or die.
Baron,
ReplyDeleteIf you hover over the user name, you can see a set of numbers at the end of the hyperlink address where it shows the hyperlink (in case of Chrome that I'm using, it's in the lower left-hand corner as I hover. That's why we call the real Gad "9941."
I've had to resort to that a few times. :-) However, if the post involves the Southwest or fabrication (materials, that is, not lies ;-)), it's probably the real Gad.
LOL - thanks for the tip - I'd hate to reply to a Bot by mistake....
ReplyDeleteOn other news....
Sikorsky closed their equity investment in Eclipse last Friday.
Cessna sold a handful more jets (68 vs 59 or something like that) in Q4/2010 vs Q4/2009 - $100M value, and claim they will sell 150 SkyCatchers this year.
NetJets stopped losing frac share owners and for the first time had a net increase last Q.
So, some positive signs there. Only fair to report the good with the bad.
Happy to help, Baron. :-)
ReplyDeleteNew Post up.