Thursday, May 26, 2011

The Future of General Aviation?

Edit 12 hours after original post: I was going on about two hours of sleep and a little slap-happy when I made the post below, and now that I've researched this a bit more, my pragmatic side is ramping up again.  There's been some confusion across the articles I've read regarding price-point, production certified vs. kit, performance, etc...  The idea still excites me, though, as it moves the technology/efficiency ball forward in GA (again, assuming it can hit it's marks, which I mentioned in my post below rarely ever happens).

My last thread post contains comments by me responding to your posts from two threads back (7 comments as of this writing).  For the first time, a new thread comes hot on the heels of an old one.  Since this blog is about us aviation enthusiasts, I figured I would post about something that enthused me very much yesterday. :-)

For purposes of this post, GA means personal light non-turbine aircraft.  Let's say 2-6 seats.  One of the email newsletters I subscribe to is AVwebFlash.  Yesterday, I saw a fascinating article about the coming Pipistrel Panthera.  The company's website can be found here.  A PDF of the Panthera program can be found here.

We know that small aircraft manufacturers hardly ever hit their performance predictions, but even if Pipistrel comes close, the Panthera promises to be an extremely exciting aircraft (to me anyway).  Aside from great performance with current engine technology, Pipistrel is working on hybrid and full electric versions.  I know that's a pipe-dream to many here, but look at how far battery technology has come in recent times.  Who's to say that technology won't make major leaps over the next decade.  Even if it doesn't, the Panthera promises to be an amazingly fast and efficient aircraft with the aforementioned current engine technology.  If the thing cost $800K, it wouldn't be very exciting.  However, according to AVweb, they are shooting for a price of around $300K--for 200+ knots on 10 GPH.

What do you guys think (other than of the company's name ;-))?

31 comments:

  1. Don't know about the Panthera, seems like a very long shot at best.

    In other news all the Dassault Falcon 7Xs have been grounded due to an aircraft having a runaway pitch trim. The pilots recovered the airplane and landed safely, but all 7Xs are grounded where they are until they figure out what to do (no ferry flights allowed).

    Not bad if you have just flown the boss to the the south of France, less appealing if you are stuck in Cleveland....

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  2. I love to see new entrants and new ideas in GA, but I'm sorry, the Panthera can't make it. 200kts from normally aspirated 210 HP, 1,000nm, 4 seats is simply not possible.

    For comparison, the SR20, does 155kts (on a good day), 500nm, 4 seats, on 210HP (flat rated to 200). The SR22, adds 50% more power (to 310) to reach 175KTS and an extra 100nm.

    If it is not blown (both engine and cabin), it is not going to be fast.

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  3. Happy Memorial Day...

    Remembering the role of aviation in greatly reducing American casualties in the inevitable armed conflicts.

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  4. Cessna has a new CEO, some supply dweeb from GE who has been given a brief by his Textron masters to increase off-shoring and outsourcing. Hello more layoffs in Wichita and more business for India, Mexico, and China. If I were in the market for a light biz jet it would be outsourced alright. Brazil sounds nice.

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  5. I am missing all the noisy discussions that used to happen. Lots of entertainment and learning.

    So in hopes of getting to read some more of you aviation gurus...

    What did you guys think of the findings of the Air France ocean crash with the pilots pulling up the plane and stalling it at 38000 ft? Lots of discussion going on here by an ex Delta pilot who also happens to be a software millionaire

    My understanding is that once you stall a commercial jet, it's very difficult if not impossible to recover due to high performance characteristics of the wing. Is that correct?

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  6. Hey Andy, the state of personal piston GA as defined by you, can be summarize by the cover of the latest issue of Flying Magazine.

    On the cover, you see the headline: "PIPER ARCHER LX: Way Beyond the Hershey Bar"

    This is a review of the 2012 PA-181 Archer. And the best they can say about it, is that it has evolved beyond the Hershey Bar. For those who don't know, in 1976, Piper started the switch of their wing planform of their PA-180/PA-32 line from a "Hershey Bar" straight wing to a tapered wing.

    So, THIRTY-FIVE YEARS LATER, that is the lead evolution of the type being mentioned by the leading GA Aviation Magazine in the land.

    BTW, the plane has exactly the same air performance it had back in 1976. And yes, its engine will still quit unexpectedly on descent and landing due to carburetor ice. It is a known, expected and documented behavior.

    Talk about being stuck in the past.

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  7. Michael,

    Everyone is assuming that the electronic attitude displays presented to the pilots were correct. One general aviation avionics manufacturer has stated that their system can give erroneous pitch and attitude indications that are mirrored in the moving map display - without a warning! If the Airbus pilots were getting incorrect nose-down presentations, while at the same time having no reliable airspeed indications, then their actions become understandable. Think there is a lot to look at here.

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  8. Dark, stormy night. Possible iced over pitot tubes, unreliable instrumentation, AP disconnect, multiple fault messages and alerts, all hitting the crew in rapid succession.

    Odds were not good that they'd be able to handle it and recover.

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  9. ASM,

    I agree that the Panthera is a very long shot to hit its targets, but I think it could be a good performer. Getting it to production in numbers is another story.

    Regarding the 7X; I hear they are allowing ferry flights now (as of a day or two ago). Talk about scary! Imagine if that had been a down runaway trim from low altitude!

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  10. Baron,

    As I mentioned to ASM, I'm hoping it can push the performance/efficiency envelope in the right direction. It seems like this will have some good drag reduction over the SR20 but 50 knots worth is definitely a stretch.

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  11. ASM,

    It will definitely be interesting to see where the new CEO takes Cessna (figuratively and literally ;-)).

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  12. Michael,

    Those were some crazy discussions, weren't they?

    On the face of it AF seems like sloppy piloting, but I suspect that it's a lot more complicated than that. I'm really curious to read the final report. It seems to me that the accident might have been the result of one of those "perfect storms" where even the best crews would have been hard pressed to recover the airplane.

    It is hard to imagine why there was so much up stick input, though. Did they think the tail had stalled because of icing? More likely there were some really weird instrument indications occurring (not to mention an overload of them).

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  13. Baron,

    Haven't seen "Flying" yet this month, but your summary is both hilarious and sad.

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  15. Michael,

    AF
    the BEA only pulished very few data and hardly any cockpit conversation.

    Thus I only have prejudices concerning the pilots actions.

    IMHO: This prelimnary report was made for the media. We have to wait for a more comprehensive
    at the end of june or july!

    julius

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  16. Andy,

    the final report of the A320 is realy interesting as it partly describes the Airbus philosophy. I was astonished about BEA's finding
    keeping in mind that a typical Airbus pilot only directs his plan (flying "normal law").
    Apart from the final landing phase the pilot will enjoy the "normal law" (auto trim etc.)!

    The recent report contains a lot of AoA-data but no pitch data! But AoA is invisible for the pilot.
    If an a/c is stabilized and the speed indicator fails then there is no reason to change anything.

    I once experienced the loss of the airspeed indicator in a night flight. I noticed when the indicated speed went down. But we (the was also a FI) entered clouds (night vfr) and could not descend. As the engine was running quite well we simply checked pitot heater...

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  17. I think a lot of us are just out enjoying the summer in our limited free-time (not that there were that many here posting to begin with). :-)

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  18. http://www.generalaviationnews.com/2011/06/28/eclipse-gets-faa-nod-for-fire-suppression-system-component/

    gadfly

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  19. Did you know that an "Eclipse 500" did a belly-flop in Nome, Alaska, about 1 June 2011? . . . pilot forgot to put down gear . . . applied power and did a "go-a-round" and landed safely . . . sorta! Little bird may have serious injuries in belly/box spar section.

    gadfly

    (You know that's goin' to leave a mark!)

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  20. Gad,

    Great to hear about the fire suppresion system! Slowly but surely the former "toy" jet is becoming a viable machine.

    I heard about the belly-flop. Crazy in my opinion to go around! Granted, not as crazy as going around with two newly Q-tipped props hanging off the wings (which has been done, as well), but who knows what kind of damage has been done as you reloft the jet.

    That said, it's easy to throw stones ;-) Depending on how hard the hit is, I can see the temptation. Definitely something to have solid in your mind before an event like that occurs (a commitment to keep it on the ground, I mean).

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  21. Editor of Flight International tweet from Oshkosh:

    “Mason Holland of Sikorsky-backed Eclipse tells us production of VLJ still on track to restart within 18 months.”

    I guess to somewhat back this up our T1 did ask us for pricing on some of the Eclipse parts we provided in the past. Hold on to your purse strings…

    T2

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  22. A long time ago, about 1956, my Dad had to finish the production model of his invention of the inertial restraint system, since a salesman for the company, Pacific Scientific Corp., had sold the first units to Sikorsky . . . and the pressure hastened my Dad's final and fatal heart attack, 2 March 1957.

    Later that summer, the first lives were saved in a helicopter crash in the Swiss Alps, due to using my Dad's inertial harness system, and five point quick disconnect buckle . . . still found in most cockpits in commercial jets, almost unchanged in over fifty years.

    So, when I read that Sikorsky has gone in to a joint venture with the Eclipse jet, I wonder what will be the outcome. Back then (1950's, and before), Sikorsky had a great reputation . . . and still does. Igor was one of the greatest of the aviation pioneers.

    What will the "modern" Sikorsky do with an aircraft built with very questionable techniques, the disruptions of countless lives still unresolved in the local community, and business practices that would never be approved by Igor? We wait to see.

    If Igor had designed the little jet (that's a stretch), he would have been the test pilot. Remember the first photos of his helicopter? . . . he sat in the pilot's seat, with his "fedora" hat . . . taking the risk himself. He was that kind of person, with the highest sense of integrity.

    The trouble with history is that it is, what it is! . . . and cannot be changed.

    gadfly

    ("Bondo", chem milling, stir-fried welding . . . etc., etc., . . . it will be interesting to see how the "modern" Sikorsky meets the challenge . . . or if it is only an attempt at a quick buck, in a world where quality and integrity play second fiddle to excellence in design, manufacturing, integrity. Has it come to the point that Sikorsky must "buy" its' technology at a local Albuquerque flea market? Oh well, who cares . . . !)

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  23. You know . . . sometimes it's fun to tweak the brains (?) of the folks that are attempting to completely change our Republic.

    For instance, I just looked at something on the web speaking of the new Eclipse 500 that would carry six people, 1,300 hundred miles, at about 350 knots, etc., etc. And I also read and hear about the way to fix our economy is to borrow, and hire vast amounts of government workers . . . to bale us out of our economic problems. You read the one, and then the other, . . . and before long, it all seems to run together . . . if you can believe the first, there is no problem believing the second, etc.

    At present, I spend some of my time on the "porclain throne" reading a book about the history or the "Luftwaffe, 1915 to 1945" . . . actually, quite good.

    (A note about the "reading room" . . . it's quiet . . . no one wants to disturb your time . . . and when you reach a stopping point, you can mark your place in the book with a ready made book mark, and complete your chores, etc.)

    The characters involved, beginning with Hermann Goering, and going down the list, includes many names . . . many of whom were geniuses in their day, no doubt about it . . . allowed their genius to be "bought" by evil people in power. Hermann Goering . . . I think I could have been his friend back after the "Great War" (WWI), but he allowed himself to be caught up in evil things . . . his ego carried him further than even he thought possible.

    Take a look at the fiasco of the "Eclipse 500" . . . and the people in charge, and the politicians involved . . . history does, indeed, repeat itself . . . over and over and over. The folks in New Mexico are still paying the price for that fiasco . . . only the bulk of the mess is attached to a farce of a rail system between Albuquerque and Santa Fe. By the way, where is that little ex-governor, Bill something? . . . he seems to have left his dirty laundry behind him . . . for others to clean up.

    You see, the Eclipse didn't just suddenly "depart", and everything ended "happily ever after" . . . after the party, someone has to clean up the mess. (You won't read that in the press.)

    gadfly

    (Get your plastic bag, and your "Handy Dandy Double Duty Super Dooper Pooper Scooper", and . . . never mind! The locals have forgotten how to even spell "fraud" . . . and gone on to other issues.)

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  24. Gadfly, you live in the past. Get over it.

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  25. B2D

    Actually, I live in the future, and remember the past. 'Hope you don't miss it . . . the future, that is!

    "Bored to Death" . . . Sorry, I don't have time for that sort of existence.

    gadfly

    (Having put my trust in the only One that has claim on the future, there's no time to sit around being "bored".)

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  26. T2,

    Glad to hear some extra info that indicates things continue to head the right direction! The plane will never be what was originally envisioned when taking cost into account, but it could end up being a really nice jet in the upper $2M range. Yes, I know all the arguments of Eclipse vs. Mustang or used jet/turboprop, but I think there will be a TBM-type market out there for these (relatively low production). And, as the international market develops, who knows?

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  27. Gad,

    Thanks for keeping the blog alive (okay, on life support ;-)).

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